German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks at CDU headquarters in Berlin on Sunday (local time) following the announcement of election results. [Reuters]
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks at CDU headquarters in Berlin on Sunday (local time) following the announcement of election results. [Reuters]

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has become a liability for his own ruling party, the Christian Democratic Union. Despite suffering defeat after defeat at the ballot box and facing mounting calls to take responsibility, he continues to refuse to resign — a stance that is increasingly weighing on the CDU.

According to the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election commission, the far-right Alternative for Germany party, known as AfD, won a landslide victory in Sunday's (local time) state parliament election, capturing 38.2 percent of the vote. The center-left Social Democratic Party came in second with 35.5 percent, while the CDU managed just 4.9 percent — not enough to win a single seat. It was the worst result the party has ever recorded in a postwar state parliament.

Merz himself described the outcome as a "catastrophe." Even so, he said he had no intention of revising his reform agenda or stepping down as chancellor. "What needs to be done now requires courage, resolve and patience," he said, vowing to press ahead with economic reforms.

Yet with his approval ratings in freefall and his political momentum largely spent, Merz has few options left to govern effectively. When he first ran for the CDU leadership in 2018, he promised he could cut the AfD's vote share "in half" — but since taking office as chancellor, the AfD has instead swept one election after another.

National polls currently put AfD support at 27 to 29 percent, well ahead of the CDU's 18 to 20 percent, according to Reuters.

The AfD's victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern came on the heels of another dominant win in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, where it also trounced the CDU by a wide margin. Both states are in the former East Germany, and the results lay bare the deep frustration among eastern voters — making the back-to-back defeats all the more painful for Merz.

Germany has been gripped by discontent over sluggish economic growth, high living costs and rising energy prices. The Merz government's push to overhaul pensions, the tax system and healthcare has only deepened that anger. The AfD has channeled the unrest, campaigning on tighter immigration controls and reduced support for Ukraine, steadily expanding its base across the east. The party has come to represent Germany's own version of the MAGA movement — the "Make America Great Again" political force that underpins US President Donald Trump.

The election results are expected to deepen tensions between Merz and factions within the CDU. Criticism of his reform agenda and leadership had already been building inside the party before the vote. With the results now confirming widespread distrust of Merz, calls for his resignation and demands for a leadership change are likely to grow louder.

The stakes extend beyond Germany. With far-right forces gaining ground in mainstream politics across Britain, France and Italy, an early departure by Merz would send significant shockwaves through Europe. In France, former National Rally leader Marine Le Pen is riding high in polls ahead of next year's general election. Italy is already governed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, widely classified as far-right. In Britain, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage entered mainstream politics after winning a parliamentary by-election. Nationalist movements are also gaining momentum in Spain and Poland ahead of national elections next year.

Even so, predicting Merz's exit is no easy call. He has shown a strong determination to hold on, and there is no obvious successor within the party.

The Times of London reported Sunday (local time) that Hendrik Wüst, the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia, is the most frequently mentioned potential replacement for Merz — but analysts say the prospect is unrealistic in practice, as Wüst faces his own state election in April next year. Wüst and eight other CDU state premiers issued a joint statement of support for Merz on Wednesday, in a bid to tamp down internal party divisions.

Another potential candidate is Markus Söder, leader of the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union, and minister-president of Bavaria — though he has yet to win broad support within the CDU itself.

The Financial Times warned that whoever succeeds Merz will face the same underlying economic problems and political constraints that have dogged his tenure.


kate01@heraldcorp.com