- Survey of 1,010 households finds 76.3% expect success, 77% back long-term value

- Group valuations differ by up to 66% depending on whether public perception is factored in

The first and second stages of the Nuri rocket's fifth launch vehicle are assembled at the launch vehicle integration facility at Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province. [Korea Aerospace Research Institute]
The first and second stages of the Nuri rocket's fifth launch vehicle are assembled at the launch vehicle integration facility at Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province. [Korea Aerospace Research Institute]

Public perception and attitudes should be factored into economic assessments of large-scale national research and development projects such as the Nuri rocket launches, a state-run policy research institute said Monday.

The Science and Technology Policy Institute, known as STEPI, published the 69th issue of its Science and Technology Policy Brief on Monday, analyzing the public-perceived value of the Nuri rocket R&D project and proposing a new framework for estimating its economic and social benefits that incorporates public awareness.

STEPI surveyed 1,010 households nationwide on their annual willingness to pay for the Nuri R&D project. The institute developed a new R&D-specific model called "R&D-CVM" — built on the contingent valuation method used to estimate the value of public goods not traded in markets — that additionally accounts for respondents' expectations of project success and their preference for long-term value.

The survey found that 76.3 percent of respondents expected the Nuri project to be completed successfully, while only 1.7 percent were skeptical about its chances of success.

Some 77.0 percent of respondents said they would support the project even if its benefits were not realized until the distant future, while just 3.4 percent were skeptical about its long-term value.

Based on these findings, the estimated annual economic and social value of the Nuri project came to about 2.3 trillion won ($1.66 billion) — roughly 2.11 percent lower than the 2.35 trillion won figure produced by the conventional CVM approach, which does not incorporate public perception.

While the difference in overall estimates was modest, the gap between subgroups was pronounced depending on how public perception was factored in.

Among respondents skeptical about the project's chances of success, the annual willingness to pay was estimated at about 10 billion won — 66.4 percent lower than the roughly 30 billion won figure generated by the conventional method. By contrast, the estimate for those who viewed the project's prospects positively came in about 9.2 percent higher than the conventional figure.

Among respondents with a low preference for long-term value, the willingness to pay was estimated at about 32.0 percent below the conventional figure.

This suggests that treating all respondents as a single group without accounting for differences in public perception can lead to either an overestimation or underestimation of the value of an R&D project.

The Nuri rocket stands upright on the launch pad at Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province. [Korea AeroSpace Administration]
The Nuri rocket stands upright on the launch pad at Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province. [Korea AeroSpace Administration]

The researchers said that because large R&D projects involve uncertainty over whether a technology will succeed and may not yield economic or social benefits for decades, conventional valuation methods centered on infrastructure projects have inherent limitations.

They recommended that group-level value assessments incorporating public perception be conducted from the project planning stage, and that projects with low public confidence in their chances of success or sharply divided public opinion be accompanied by active public communication and deliberation.

The researchers also called for quantifying social values that have been difficult to measure in economic assessments of large R&D projects, and for repeatedly gauging public-perceived value at key milestones — including project success or failure and schedule delays — even after a project is under way.

"The value of an R&D project was found to vary depending on public perception and attitudes," said Kim Hak-hyo, an associate research fellow at STEPI. "It is necessary to reflect such public perception across the entire project cycle — from planning and evaluation to feedback."

Kim added that accumulating survey results over time to track changes in public perception and perceived value could become a valuable asset for planning and managing similar large-scale R&D projects in the future.


nbgkoo@heraldcorp.com