ETF inflows of 37 billion won in one month despite returns falling as much as 30%

Flight 14 to attempt orbital entry and satellite deployment as proof of commercial viability

Share price still 30% below post-listing peak; further lock-up releases add uncertainty

SpaceX's Starship and Super Heavy V3 booster lift off from Starbase in Texas on July 24 (local time) for the vehicle's 13th test flight. [Reuters]
SpaceX's Starship and Super Heavy V3 booster lift off from Starbase in Texas on July 24 (local time) for the vehicle's 13th test flight. [Reuters]

South Korean ETFs holding SpaceX shares have posted losses of as much as 30% over the past three months, yet investors have continued to pour money in — about 37 billion won ($26.8 million) in net inflows over the past month alone. Markets are now watching whether that sustained bet on SpaceX's growth potential will finally translate into a share-price rebound when Starship conducts its 14th test flight on Sept. 28.

According to Koscom ETF Check, the nine domestic ETFs that include SpaceX recorded one-month returns ranging from -17.37% to 2.04% and three-month returns of -37.52% to -20.40%. In the week surrounding the confirmation of the 14th test flight, however, all nine funds turned positive, posting returns of 3.03% to 4.45%.

Even as SpaceX's share price has struggled, money has consistently flowed into the related ETFs — about 5 billion won over the past week and about 37 billion won over the past month. The inflows have continued even as the stock has fallen nearly 30% from its post-listing peak, reflecting investor confidence in the company's long-term growth story.

The market is closely watching whether SpaceX can use this test flight to demonstrate commercial viability. Analysts say the stock will need concrete evidence that Starship is ready for real-world operations before it can recover to the lofty expectations priced in at the time of listing.

The 14th test flight, originally scheduled for Sept. 22, was postponed once and is now set for Sept. 28. Subject to regulatory approval, a 75-minute launch window opens at 8:15 a.m. Eastern time (9:15 p.m. Korean Standard Time).

Previous test flights confirmed Starship's ability to reach space and return. Flight 14 will go further, testing whether the vehicle can carry satellites into Earth orbit and actually deploy them.

The mission calls for Starship to carry 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into space, achieve orbital velocity, complete roughly six orbits of Earth, and deploy all 26 satellites into their target orbits. All flights through the 13th were suborbital — the vehicle reached space but came back down without completing a full orbit.

SpaceX's broader goal is to move away from building a new rocket for each launch, instead recovering, refurbishing and relaunching both the booster and the spacecraft. That is also why the company plans to attempt a direct tower catch of the Starship upper stage during Flight 15, the mission after this one.

Investors are watching whether the test flight can restore momentum to a share price that has fallen nearly 30% from its post-listing high. Jeffrey Wlodarczak, an analyst at Pivotal Research, said Starship must be capable of flying dozens of missions on a single vehicle and turning it around quickly and cheaply before launch costs can be meaningfully reduced. "How well it executes the planned mission — orbital entry and satellite deployment — will be the benchmark for expectations around future commercial operations," he said.

How well the stock absorbs additional lock-up releases after the test flight is another variable. Since listing, lock-ups have been lifted in stages, making roughly 12% of total shares outstanding available for trading, yet the large-scale releases have not triggered a sustained decline. When about 900 million shares were freed up on Aug. 6, the stock actually rose more than 6% that day; while some subsequent release dates saw the price dip, none set off a prolonged downtrend.

Larger tranches still lie ahead, however. Additional lock-up expirations are scheduled for Thursday and in October, and after the third-quarter earnings release expected in November, up to about 1.3 billion more shares could become tradeable. With the test flight raising hopes for SpaceX's growth at the same time that a large potential overhang looms, the key question is whether the stock can sustain any post-flight rally and absorb the additional supply.


kacew@heraldcorp.com