Nikkei survey of private-sector economists

Containers sit at a port in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, in June 2020. [AP]
Containers sit at a port in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, Japan, in June 2020. [AP]

Japan's economy, which posted positive growth in the second quarter of this year, is expected to show zero growth in the third quarter, the Nikkei reported Wednesday.

A Nikkei survey of 10 private-sector economists found that Japan's real GDP for the third quarter (July-September) is expected to be flat both quarter-on-quarter and on an annualized quarter-on-quarter basis, once the effects of price changes are stripped out.

Japan's Cabinet Office on Tuesday revised its second-quarter real GDP growth rate up to 0.4 percent, from a preliminary reading of 0.3 percent. On an annualized basis, the figure was revised up to 1.4 percent from the preliminary 1.1 percent. Based on this revised figure, the economists' forecasts for third-quarter growth varied widely, ranging from annualized growth of 0.4 percent to an annualized contraction of 1.1 percent.

However, their average forecast pointed to growth of around zero percent, marking, in effect, a return to zero growth for the Japanese economy. Economists expected the main cause to be an expansion in imports tied to Japan's efforts to secure alternative sources of crude oil.

In the second quarter, crude oil imports had temporarily declined amid instability in the Middle East, which had the effect of boosting GDP. Imports fell 1.7 percent during that period.

Since then, however, crude oil imports have been recovering as the Japanese government has pushed to secure supplies from alternative sources.

According to preliminary petroleum import statistics, Japan's crude oil imports in July rose 17 percent from a year earlier. As a result, economists forecast that imports will rise 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter.


yckim6452@heraldcorp.com