US markets closed for Labor Day, leaving Kospi in wait-and-see mode
European stocks mixed amid ECB meeting, oil prices, bond yields
Analysts forecast sector divergence as rate and Middle East risks linger
All eyes are on whether the Kospi can reclaim the 7,000 mark Tuesday, riding a semiconductor tailwind from OpenAI, even as analysts warn that profit-taking could produce a divergent session across sectors.
Korea Exchange data show the Kospi closed Monday at 6,995.39, up 308.18 points, or 4.61 percent, from the previous session — leaving the index just 4.61 points short of the 7,000 threshold.
The benchmark opened 223.57 points, or 3.34 percent, higher at 6,910.78 and held its gains throughout the session to finish firmly in positive territory.
The rally was driven by expectations that OpenAI's launch of its new AI model "Astra" would stoke demand for high-capacity products and sustain a rise in memory chip prices. Foreign and institutional investors together poured more than 5 trillion won ($3.69 billion) into the Kospi market in a coordinated buying spree, lifting the index.
Buying was concentrated in semiconductor stocks, with Samsung Electronics surging 5.68 percent and SK hynix jumping 8.26 percent.
"The immediate catalyst was the revival of AI demand expectations following OpenAI's unveiling of Astra," said Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea. "The more limited gains in Kosdaq and small- and mid-cap stocks reflected not a broad easing of interest rate pressures, but rather a strengthening conviction in semiconductor earnings."
US markets were closed Monday for Labor Day. European stocks ended mixed, weighed down by caution ahead of the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, rising international oil prices and higher government bond yields in major economies.
Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.15 percent and 0.08 percent, respectively, while France's CAC 40 and the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.33 percent and 0.17 percent. Semiconductor-related names bucked the broader trend, however, with Infineon rising 6.91 percent and ASML advancing 2.25 percent.
International oil prices and European government bond yields both moved higher. Brent crude briefly topped $98 a barrel as military clashes between the United States and Iran continued, Bloomberg reported.
Bond yields rose as the ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates this week, while a landslide victory by the far-right Alternative for Germany party in the Saxony-Anhalt state assembly election brought fiscal deficit concerns back into focus.
"European bond yields were driven by both the ECB's stance and political developments, and those issues are likely to continue exerting influence in the second half of the year," said Seo Sang-young, a managing director at Mirae Asset Securities.
Tuesday's session is expected to hinge on whether the Astra-driven momentum can be sustained and how much profit-taking emerges following Monday's sharp advance.
KOSPI 200 overnight futures, a gauge of early market direction, were up 1.22 percent as of the time of writing.
In pre-market trading as of 8:35 a.m., Samsung Electronics was down 500 won, or 0.1 percent, at 269,000 won, while SK hynix was up 5,000 won, or 0.2 percent, at 1,788,000 won.
"The market will likely see sector divergence as profit-taking from Monday's sharp short-term gains plays out, with intraday moves in US 10-year Treasury yields and news flow around the US-Iran situation also acting as key variables," said Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities.
She added that the key question is whether foreign investors can sustain consecutive net purchases even as share prices pull back. "At the same time, it will be worth watching whether rotation into other AI infrastructure plays — such as IT hardware and power equipment — or into consumer goods and shareholder return-focused sectors emerges during any short-term pause in semiconductor stocks," she said.
yuni@heraldcorp.com
