Three rounds of recruitment from May to September drew almost no applicants; only 1 of 15 targeted conversions completed; city research finds elder-care supply still insufficient despite apparent saturation

This photo is unrelated to the article. [Yonhap]
This photo is unrelated to the article. [Yonhap]

Seoul's program to convert shuttered nurseries into elder-care facilities is struggling to gain traction, as childcare operators hesitate to apply over concerns about financial viability.

The Seoul Metropolitan Government set a target of converting 15 closed nurseries into senior day-care centers and nursing facilities by 2028, but only two conversions are currently in progress. A private nursery in Gangdong-gu is set to open next month, and a public nursery in Gwanak-gu is scheduled to convert into a senior day-care center in the first half of next year. That puts the city's progress at roughly 6 percent of this year's goal.

The conversion program is part of the city's "9988 Seoul Project" — named for the aspiration of staying healthy until age 99 — a comprehensive plan to address the challenges of a super-aged society that Seoul has been pursuing since last year. The city subsidizes operators willing to convert nurseries facing closure into senior and day-care centers. The program aimed to establish 15 such facilities this year, scaling up to 140 by 2040.

After announcing the 9988 Seoul Project, the city issued a public call for participants in the nursery conversion program. The first recruitment notice, issued May 29, drew no applicants. A second notice on July 10 attracted only one participant — a private nursery in Gangdong-gu. The city issued a third notice Tuesday. The Gwanak-gu nursery mentioned earlier was a separate case the city had been pursuing since last year without a public recruitment process. "We understand there is clearly demand for conversions, given the strong interest shown by nursery directors at our first information session," a Seoul city official said. "However, we understand that converting to an elder-care facility is not easy, partly due to cost issues."

The city estimates that converting a nursery with a capacity of 30 children into an elder-care facility costs about 800 million won ($584,000). For public nurseries, the city covers the full construction cost, including design fees. For private operators, support is limited to 12.5 million won in financing costs and 20 million won in consulting fees. "Providing full construction subsidies to private nursery operators converting to elder care could raise fairness concerns compared with operators who start elder-care businesses from scratch without converting," a city official said. "In particular, when a nursery closes, the operator must return hundreds of millions of won in government subsidies previously received — and that is another reason conversion is not easy."

Finding operators for nursing homes has proven especially difficult. Under the enforcement rules of the Welfare of Senior Citizens Act, anyone seeking to establish and operate a nursing home — defined as a senior medical welfare facility with 10 or more residents — must in principle directly own the land and building where the facility will be located. Leasing property owned by others, whether through monthly rent or jeonse, is not permitted for setting up a nursing home. Seoul has repeatedly petitioned the Ministry of Health and Welfare to revise the relevant regulations, but those requests have not been accepted. "The ministry takes a negative view of allowing lessees to establish nursing homes, citing concerns about stable operations," a city official said.

Another factor dampening participation is that operators no longer view the day-care center market as a growth opportunity. According to data obtained from the city, the day-care center supply rate stood at 79 percent as of January 2025, meaning such facilities are readily accessible across all 25 autonomous districts. Yangcheon-gu and Dongdaemun-gu have 32 and 27 day-care centers, respectively, with supply rates of 112 percent and 108 percent — figures that indicate saturation. Ten of the 25 districts have supply rates of 80 percent or higher.

A Seoul city official pushed back on that reading. "Current data may make it appear that the day-care center market and other senior care services have reached saturation, but research findings show supply is in fact insufficient," the official said. "We need to respond to that."

A study on long-term care demand forecasting and supply improvement, commissioned by the city from the Seoul Welfare Foundation, found that the total number of long-term care recipients in Seoul is projected to rise steadily — from about 46,566 in 2024 to about 67,378 in 2030 and about 111,963 in 2040 — as the population ages. Even in districts with high supply rates, the study found it highly likely that available capacity will be exhausted as recipients from other districts seek care there. In five priority districts analyzed, the average shortfall per nursing home is projected to grow from about 375 people in 2030 to about 492 in 2040, while for home-based care types such as day-care centers, the gap is expected to widen from about 142 people in 2030 to about 231 in 2040. "We plan to actively explain to operators of nurseries facing closure — who are reluctant to participate because they see the market as saturated — that supply will in fact fall short in the future," the official said.


cook@heraldcorp.com