Former national security adviser warns Trump's one-on-one diplomacy poses risks to North Korea negotiations; cites unilateral reduction of joint military exercises as example

John Bolton, who served as White House national security adviser during Donald Trump's first administration [AP]
John Bolton, who served as White House national security adviser during Donald Trump's first administration [AP]

John Bolton, who served as White House national security adviser during Donald Trump's first administration, said Trump is likely to pursue a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.

Speaking Tuesday (local time) at a video forum hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies in Washington, Bolton said Trump had already made history twice in his dealings with Kim — first as the US president to meet the North Korean leader in Singapore in 2018, then as the first to set foot on North Korean soil during the 2019 demilitarized zone encounter. "There is only one step left," Bolton said. "That is Trump visiting Pyongyang."

Bolton said Trump's desire for another North Korea summit comes down to optics. "It's because he needs the photo. It's because he wants to divert attention," he said. Bolton added that if Trump suffers losses in the November midterm elections, he will likely shift focus toward foreign policy rather than face congressional battles in the latter half of his term.

Bolton recalled that Trump had already floated the idea of a Pyongyang visit at the Singapore summit, telling Kim, "Why don't you come aboard Air Force One with me and stop by Pyongyang?" He said the purpose of such a visit would be purely promotional. "That's really all it is," Bolton said.

Bolton also noted that Trump has repeatedly referred to North Korea as a "nuclear power." He said he was "very skeptical" about what the United States could extract from Kim, but added that North Korea "will have calculated very carefully what it can get out of the talks."

Bolton did not rule out the possibility of a summit taking place. "I think Trump woke up one day and had this idea," he said. "There is every possibility that discussions are now underway to see if it can be made real. However, a summit that achieves nothing could set things back."

Bolton said Trump has spent five and a half years viewing international relations through the lens of personal ties between leaders. "He doesn't need the State Department, the Defense Ministry, the Treasury, or anyone else — merely two friends talking to each other," Bolton said. "I think that is dangerous."

Bolton said he did not know who was advising Trump on North Korea, or whether anyone was advising him at all. He suggested the National Security Council had become largely dysfunctional and that Trump appeared to be making unilateral decisions without input from his staff.

"That is why the risks of a Trump-Kim meeting are so great," Bolton said, pointing to Trump's recent decision to shorten the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises as an example. He recalled that at the Singapore summit, Trump had stunned aides by impulsively telling Kim he would "just cancel" the joint exercises that year after Kim raised the issue — a decision that caught the staff in the room off guard.

Bolton said North Korea had gained real combat experience and drone warfare capabilities through its troop deployment to support Russia's war in Ukraine, and could use that experience to carry out limited military provocations against South Korea to test Washington's willingness to intervene.

He said China could similarly strike at Taiwan's international standing — without triggering a US response — not by invading or blockading Taiwan outright, but by seizing Kinmen or Taiwan-administered islands in the South China Sea.

By the same token, Bolton said, North Korea could consider simply occupying a few islands beyond the Northern Limit Line. "It creates a kind of test case to see what Trump's resolve is," he said. "That kind of situation worries me greatly."

Turning to President Lee Jae Myung, Bolton said it was "not necessarily a bad thing" for Lee to refrain from aggressively pursuing a summit with Trump. "You have to be careful about what Trump says and does," he said. "That is why the risks are so high."

Bolton said that if a North Korea-US summit were to take place, Kim would find it in his own interest to show flexibility on the issue of abductees, as it would serve as a useful card for him to play. "If someone can open a new path on that issue, I think it would be President Lee," he said.

"In the context of South Korean politics as well, that aligns with President Lee's own political interests," Bolton added.

Bolton said the United States should address its weapons stockpile shortages through production-sharing arrangements with South Korea and Japan. "If we advance trilateral defense cooperation and then engage Kim Jong-un in dialogue, we will all be in a stronger position," he said.


mokiya@heraldcorp.com