A North Korean tactical ballistic missile launches from a coastal launch pad in a burst of flame. [Yonhap]
A North Korean tactical ballistic missile launches from a coastal launch pad in a burst of flame. [Yonhap]

South Korea's military said Sunday that while North Korea continues preparations for additional troop deployments, no imminent signs of such a move have been detected. "North Korea's deployment preparations are ongoing, but no signs of an imminent additional deployment have been identified at this time," the military said in an official statement, adding that it is "tracking North Korea's additional deployment movements in coordination with relevant countries."

Speculation about a further deployment of North Korean troops arose last month after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed North Korea could send an additional 30,000 soldiers to Russia. Sunday's disclosure marks the first time South Korean military authorities have confirmed their assessment of the additional deployment situation. Since October 2024, an estimated 15,000 North Korean combat troops and more than 6,000 engineering and construction personnel have been sent to Russia.

The assessment was contained in documents the Ministry of National Defense submitted to People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Yong-won of the National Assembly's Defense Committee, which he released Sunday. The documents indicate that a significant number of casualties are estimated to have occurred among the deployed North Korean troops, and that deployment allowances appear to have been paid.

The volume of artillery shells North Korea has supplied to Russia is assessed at more than 15 million rounds when converted to the equivalent of 152mm single shells.

The Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that North Korea has continued to supply Russia with weapons systems, including short-range ballistic missiles, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.

North Korean missiles used in the Russia-Ukraine war may have seen improvements in performance — including accuracy — given the accumulation of real-combat data and the possibility of Russian advisory support and parts supply, the agency said.

Military authorities confirmed for the first time that the Hwaseong-11 series tactical ballistic missiles and 600mm multiple rocket launchers — weapons systems assessed as designed to strike South Korea — are mostly at the completed development stage.

The Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that these weapons systems offer operational advantages over legacy Scud-series missiles, with improved accuracy, intercept-evasion capability and mass-launch capacity. They are also expected to be deployed with forward North Korean corps near the truce line to replace aging missiles and bolster long-range firepower.

However, regarding a new tactical ballistic missile that North Korea announced it would deploy with 250 launchers at the front line, the agency said "operational readiness preparations are underway, but no signs of actual operational deployment have been detected to date."

The Hwaseong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of reaching the US territory of Guam, has completed development and is being prepared for operational deployment. The Hwaseong-16 series hypersonic missiles, which fall in the medium-to-intermediate range, are still under development, and the technology for stable glide flight in a hypersonic environment has been assessed as insufficient.

North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles have demonstrated the flight capability to reach the continental United States, but all test launches have been conducted at high angles only, meaning key technologies such as warhead atmospheric reentry remain unverified. The military estimates North Korea is currently developing a new, enlarged Hwaseong-20 variant.

North Korea is also developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles, including the intermediate-range-and-above Pukguksong series and the short-range Hwaseong-11 SLBM. On SLBM platforms, the military assessed that the tactical nuclear attack submarine known as the Kim Kun Ok has not yet been operationalized, and that a large submarine Pyongyang unveiled while claiming it is nuclear-powered will also require considerable time before becoming operational.

The Defense Ministry recently reported to the National Assembly's Defense Committee that North Korea is accelerating a military buildup along the border, installing minefields and fences near the MDL while deploying 240mm and 600mm multiple rocket launchers and new self-propelled artillery in the area.

Analysts warn that thorough preparedness is needed, as deploying new weapons systems combining extended range and precision-strike capability to forward positions would significantly heighten North Korea's threat to key military facilities in the Greater Seoul area and the central region.

"We must never take lightly the fact that the real-combat experience and data North Korea has accumulated in the Russia-Ukraine war could come back as a direct threat to the Korean Peninsula," Yoo said.

He added that "North Korea's provocative threat against the South is advancing to a more sophisticated and lethal stage," and called on South Korea's military to "establish a firm readiness posture capable of responding immediately and resolutely, and to devote all efforts to maintaining a seamless combined defense posture with the United States."


rimsclub@heraldcorp.com