A bowl of rice used to cost $1. Now it can run $3 — and climate change may push it higher.

A bowl of steamed rice. [Image generated with ChatGPT]

"The hotter it gets, the more expensive your rice bowl?"

For years, a side bowl of steamed rice — known in Korean as "gonggi-bap" — barely warranted a glance at the price tag. Restaurants across the country charged 1,000 won as a matter of course.

That is changing. More and more restaurants are now pricing the same bowl at 1,500 won, 2,000 won, or even 3,000 won.

The concern is that pricier rice may become the norm. As temperatures rise, rice output is expected to fall.

A traditional Korean set meal. [Kim Gwang-woo]

The effects are already visible in South Korea. This year's record-breaking heat wave prompted rice plants in parts of North Gyeongsang Province to head — the stage when the grain-bearing panicle emerges — two to three weeks earlier than usual.

When that happens, the critical period of grain formation coincides with the peak of summer heat, raising serious concerns about both yield and quality.

Climate change, having already driven up the prices of vegetables, fruit and other ingredients, is now threatening South Korea's dietary staple.

A bowl of steamed rice. [Getty Images Bank]

According to data released Monday by the National Institute of Crop Science under the Rural Development Administration, rice plants in parts of North Gyeongsang Province — including Yeongju, Andong, Sangju and Uiseong — began heading as early as July 25, roughly two to three weeks ahead of the historical average.

The National Institute of Crop Science attributed the early heading to high temperatures. Sustained heat during the early growth stage accelerated the transition from vegetative growth — putting out leaves and stems — to reproductive growth, when the panicle forms. In short, the heat made the plants grow faster.

Participants harvest rice at the first rice-cutting ceremony for Icheon's royal-brand rice in a greenhouse paddy in Anpyeong-ri, Hobeop-myeon, Icheon, Gyeonggi Province. [Yonhap]

July — the very month the panicles emerged — was exceptionally hot in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province. According to the Daegu Regional Meteorological Administration's climate report for July 2026, last month's average temperature was 27.1 degrees Celsius, 2.6 degrees above the historical norm. That made it the second-hottest July on record since 1973.

The problem is that by heading early, the plants were exposed to the year's most intense heat precisely when they needed to form grains. Once the panicle emerges, the plant begins producing individual rice grains in earnest — but excessive heat can disrupt that process.

When extreme heat strikes during flowering, pollination can fail, preventing grains from forming at all. Heat also forces the plant to burn more energy on respiration, leaving less to fill out the grain. The result: fewer or lower-quality grains from the same area of paddy.

This is increasingly a global problem as temperatures climb. With El Niño driving up temperatures worldwide this year, a growing body of research points to declining rice production.

A study published July 29 in the international journal Science Advances by researchers from Peking University in China, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and other institutions found that for every 1-degree Celsius rise in global average temperature, world rice production falls by an average of 8.1 percent.

Farmer Kim Gyeong-yang transplants rice seedlings using farm machinery in a paddy in Jukdong-dong, Gangseo-gu, Busan. [Yonhap]

The researchers analyzed 214 open-field experiments in which paddy temperatures were artificially raised at sites around the world. Existing global crop models had projected a 3.8 percent decline, but the actual results were twice as severe. Once real-world heat damage in paddies was factored in, the projections fell well short.

Heat waves proved particularly damaging. For each additional day above 30 degrees Celsius during the flowering and grain-filling stage, rice output fell by 1.1 to 1.8 percent. What mattered was not the average temperature, but how many consecutive days of extreme heat hit the crop at its most vulnerable moment.

South Korea's climate outlook offers little comfort. According to the "Korea Climate Crisis Assessment Report 2025," released last year by the Ministry of Environment and the Korea Meteorological Administration, the country currently averages 8.8 heat-wave days per year.

A bowl of steamed rice served at a restaurant. [Herald DB]

By the latter half of this century, that figure is projected to nearly triple even under a low-carbon scenario — and could increase as much as ninefold under a high-emissions pathway. Given the research showing that even a single additional day above 30 degrees during grain formation reduces output, those numbers are not encouraging.

The impact of falling rice production does not stop at the farm gate. The average retail price of a 20-kilogram bag of rice was 53,078 won ($38) in July 2024. By the same month last year it had risen to 59,671 won, and this July it reached 61,696 won — a gain of more than 16 percent in two years.

Multiple factors have driven current prices, including a shrinking area under rice cultivation, low stockpiles and government supply management. If climate variability is added to that mix, price swings could grow even larger.

A shop owner arranges rice bags at a rice store in Seoul. [Yonhap]

South Koreans are eating less rice than they once did, but it remains the country's dominant crop. As of 2022, per-capita annual rice consumption stood at around 56 kilograms — by far the largest share of any grain. That makes the staple particularly exposed to climate-driven production losses.

In response, the research team advised protecting rice plants from heat waves during the flowering and grain-filling stages. They also outlined four measures: developing and distributing heat-tolerant varieties, adjusting sowing and transplanting schedules, improving irrigation, and enhancing soil quality.

Meanwhile, rice is far from the only crop under pressure. Abnormal heat and heat waves driven by climate change are already disrupting the production of food ingredients across the board.

The floor of a paddy inside the Hannon crater in Seogwipo, Jeju, is cracked and parched. [Yonhap]

A study by a research team at Aalto University in Finland, published in the international journal Nature Food, found that if global temperatures rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, world food production could fall by a third — and potentially by half.

Farmland used to grow major crops such as rice, corn, wheat and potatoes is projected to shrink significantly. Those crops account for more than two-thirds of the world's food supply. If average temperatures rise by 3 degrees or more, crop output could decline by as much as 70 to 80 percent.

Some argue that farmers can simply switch to crops better suited to changing conditions. South Korea has in fact begun cultivating new varieties adapted to subtropical climates. But the transition is slow. Acquiring new equipment, seeds and irrigation systems requires substantial investment, and farmers must also learn new techniques.

woo@heraldcorp.com