Apple output to rise 8.7% this year despite heat wave, prices down 28%

Apple output this year is forecast to rise 8.7% from last year despite a heat wave and drought, with early-variety shipments already up more than 20% and consumer prices nearly 30% lower than a year ago. Heat-wave damage has been reported mainly in South Gyeongsang Province, but the affected area for apples and pears accounts for less than 1% of total cultivation, and the government expects the impact on Chuseok fruit supply to remain limited.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs' report on supply trends and responses for major fruits in 2026, released Thursday, the Korea Rural Economic Institute projected in early August that this year's apple output would reach 487,100 tons, up 8.7% from last year.

Daily wholesale price trends for major fruits (July–August) [Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs]

Both a larger cultivation area and higher yield per unit contributed to the output increase. This year's apple cultivation area expanded 4.9% from last year to 34,580 hectares, while yield per 10 ares is forecast to rise 3.6% to 1,398 kilograms.

Pear output is projected at 200,000 tons, up 1.3% from last year. Although the cultivation area edged down 0.2% to 9,302 hectares, yield per 10 ares is expected to increase 1.4% to 2,150 kilograms.

Sweet persimmon output faces greater uncertainty from heat-wave damage. The Korea Rural Economic Institute's early-August forecast put production at 96,300 tons, up 7.0% from the previous year. Since then, high temperatures and drought have caused damage centered on South Gyeongsang Province, and the Agriculture Ministry now says output could fall slightly below last year's level once recent losses are factored in.

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, 99.2% of all heat-wave damage reports for apples, pears and sweet persimmons were concentrated in South Gyeongsang Province. The reported damage area for sweet persimmons reached 1,696.7 hectares, or 17.2% of total cultivation, with 1,691.3 hectares of that in South Gyeongsang Province.

Apples and pears suffered comparatively little damage. The reported damage area for apples was 54.6 hectares, or 0.2% of total cultivation, while pears came in at 53.8 hectares, or 0.6%. The ministry said apple and pear output is still expected to exceed last year's levels even after accounting for recent heat-wave and drought losses.

Prices for early-variety apples already hitting the market have also stabilized. Average daily shipments of Tsugaru apples stood at 106 tons in mid-August, up 20.5% from a year earlier.

The higher volume has pushed prices down. The wholesale price of Tsugaru apples fell 18.1% from last year to 45,819 won ($32) per 10 kilograms, while the retail price dropped 28.6% to 19,009 won for 10 apples.

Shipments of Wonhwang, an early-variety pear, surged 48.1% from last year. The mid-August wholesale price was 56,209 won per 15 kilograms, up 9.0% from a year ago, but the retail price fell 3.2% to 30,280 won for 10 pears. Wonhwang wholesale prices have also been trending down, falling from 70,696 won per 15 kilograms on Aug. 3 to 48,452 won on Wednesday.

The government plans to expand fruit supply ahead of Chuseok. It will provide pesticides and nutrients at up to 50% discount through 62 agricultural cooperatives in major fruit-growing regions and will release government-secured designated shipment stocks in stages. Discounts on holiday gift sets are also planned.

adastra@heraldcorp.com