USFK Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson (left) visits the Ministry of National Defense building in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, on Tuesday to meet with Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back. [Yonhap]
USFK Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson (left) visits the Ministry of National Defense building in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, on Tuesday to meet with Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back. [Yonhap]

In an unprecedented development, the ongoing US-South Korea joint exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield has been significantly scaled back on the orders of US President Donald Trump — a move analysts say reflects both Washington's interest in resuming dialogue with North Korea and a calculated effort to pressure Seoul on trade and defense issues.

Shin Jong-woo, secretary general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, described the exercise reduction Wednesday as pressure squarely aimed at South Korea.

"The North Korea-US talks are proceeding without any coordination with South Korea whatsoever — it is a clear case of 'Korea passing,'" Shin said. "Trump has built up a perception that South Korea is dragging its feet and not actively contributing on trade or security. It started with the Strait of Hormuz issue and the pressure has continued from there."

Shin also referenced the March attack on the Namaho vessel, saying the government had downplayed the incident by describing what was in fact a cruise missile as a drone. "There was an opportunity to decide on an independent deployment under the pretext of protecting overseas nationals, and it is a shame that opportunity was not seized," he said.

He went on to say that since Iran has yet to acknowledge responsibility for the attack, South Korea should still pursue diplomatic solutions — including dispatching naval vessels — citing the protection of overseas nationals in the Middle East as justification.

Kim Gwan-ok, a professor at Keimyung University, said Trump appeared to be pursuing a dual strategy: keeping open the possibility of improved relations with North Korea while simultaneously applying pressure on Seoul.

"Trump does not have many cards to play with the Iran war still ongoing," Kim said. "It looks like he intends to take the initiative on inter-Korean affairs to compensate for shortcomings elsewhere."

Kim was cautious, however, about whether pressure tied to issues such as a troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz would actually materialize.

"South Korea's room to get involved is not large," he said, adding that the practical effect would likely be limited regardless of Trump's intentions.

"Trump is in an overall unfavorable position, so he is trying to open up the North Korea issue as a way to find a breakthrough," Kim said. "His remarks always need to be taken with a grain of salt. There is an element of showmanship for domestic political purposes."

Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asan Policy Institute, was skeptical that the moves would lead to actual North Korea-US talks, citing a mutual dilemma over the precondition of nuclear recognition.

"The core demand North Korea has made as a condition for dialogue is recognition of its nuclear status," Yang said. "The key question is whether Trump can accept that and still bring talks to fruition."

"The very act of meeting Kim Jong-un in the first place effectively gave North Korea its international debut," Yang added. "Trump's first term produced no results, and if he now relaxes even the denuclearization condition to pursue talks, it will go down as a significant diplomatic failure for the United States."

Yang added that North Korea now clearly recognizes Trump's showmanship for what it is. "In the past, simply talking with the US was itself a big deal, but North Korea has already deepened its ties with China and Russia, so it is not in a hurry," he said. "There is a strong likelihood that North Korea will demand substantial support or sanctions relief in exchange for an actual meeting."

Shin also warned that if the South Korean government fails to find a diplomatic solution quickly, the fallout could extend to defense industry cooperation that had been proceeding smoothly — including transfers of nuclear-powered submarines and precision weapons.

Amid all this, North Korea responded to the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise with a threat, saying its exercise of the right to self-defense "will be expressed through clearer action" to thoroughly neutralize what it called military threats from its adversaries.

KCNA, in a commentary released Wednesday, said that "it is necessary to respond to the increasingly evolving threatening actions of adversaries with evolved new strength."

The agency added that "adversaries who infringe upon and threaten the sovereignty and security of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will at all times find themselves within the precise aim of annihilating retaliatory means," and that "all aggression war exercises by hostile countries will never bring the results their organizers desire."

On the UN Command's participation in the exercise, KCNA said it represented "a full-scale start to reviving the combat functions and expanding the role" of the UNC, calling it "a development that cannot be overlooked."

The commentary made no mention of Trump's recent order to scale back the exercises or his conciliatory gestures toward North Korea.


youknow@heraldcorp.com
rimsclub@heraldcorp.com