Semiconductor jobs to surge 5.1% on AI boom; textiles to shed workers

An aerial view of Samsung Electronics' semiconductor campus in Pyeongtaek [Samsung Electronics]

Semiconductor employment is forecast to grow more than 5 percent in the second half of this year compared with the same period last year, driven by the expanding AI market and a surge in data center investment. The shipbuilding sector is also expected to sustain job growth after securing more than three years' worth of orders.

By contrast, employment in most other key manufacturing industries — including automobiles, steel and petrochemicals — is expected to remain flat, while the textile sector is projected to shed jobs, pointing to a widening gap in labor market conditions across industries.

According to the "Second-Half 2026 Employment Outlook for Major Industries" released Wednesday by the Korea Employment Information Service and the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology, semiconductors and shipbuilding are the only two of nine surveyed manufacturing sectors forecast to add jobs compared with the second half of last year. Textiles are expected to contract, while the remaining six — machinery, electronics, displays, steel, automobiles, metal fabrication and petrochemicals — are projected to hold at last year's levels.

Second-half 2026 employment outlook for major industries [Korea Employment Information Service]

The Korea Employment Information Service classifies a sector as "growing" when year-on-year employment rises 1.5 percent or more, "stable" when the change falls between -1.5 percent and 1.5 percent, and "declining" when it drops more than 1.5 percent.

Semiconductors are expected to post the largest employment gain of any sector. Jobs in the industry are forecast to rise 5.1 percent, or about 8,000 positions, in the second half of this year compared with the same period last year — the highest growth rate and the largest absolute increase among all nine sectors surveyed.

Rapid AI market expansion is the primary driver. The Korea Employment Information Service projected that the global semiconductor market will grow roughly 94 percent this year, from $833.1 billion last year to $1.62 trillion, on the back of rising investment in AI servers and data centers and higher memory chip prices. Demand is expected to be particularly strong for HBM chips for AI and server applications, as well as server DRAM and solid-state drives.

Capital expenditure is also set to climb. Global semiconductor equipment investment is forecast to rise about 17 percent from last year to $237.5 billion, driven by growing demand for AI infrastructure and increased spending on advanced processes below 5 nanometers.

An aerial view of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' yards in Dong-gu, Ulsan [HD Hyundai Heavy Industries]

The shipbuilding sector is also expected to sustain its employment growth momentum.

Shipbuilding jobs are forecast to increase 2.7 percent, or about 3,000 positions, in the second half compared with the same period last year. The ramp-up in deliveries of high-value vessels — including LNG carriers and large container ships ordered in bulk in 2022 and 2023 — is expected to push ship exports up 8.3 percent from last year to $33.91 billion this year.

As of May, domestic shipyards held an order backlog of 38.5 million compensated gross tons, equivalent to more than three years of work. That stable pipeline supports production expansion and job growth. Shipbuilding employment surged 9.7 percent year-on-year in the second half of 2023, but the pace of growth has since moderated — rising 2.9 percent in the first half of this year and forecast to rise 2.7 percent in the second half.

The outlook is far less encouraging for automobiles, steel and many other core manufacturing sectors.

Automobile sector employment is expected to fall 0.5 percent, or about 2,000 positions, from the second half of last year. Because the decline falls short of the 1.5 percent threshold, the sector is still classified as "stable." Domestic sales are forecast to rise 3.9 percent, supported by new model launches and growing demand for AI-equipped and electric vehicles, and production is expected to increase 2.2 percent — but neither trend is expected to translate into broader hiring.

Steel employment is also projected to slip 0.3 percent, or about 400 positions, keeping it within the "stable" range. Domestic demand is expected to improve slightly thanks to a low base from weak construction activity last year, but exports are forecast to decline as protectionism intensifies in major markets including the EU.

Electronics and display employment is projected to fall 0.1 percent, or about 1,000 positions. Metal fabrication is expected to shed about 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent, and petrochemicals about 3,000 jobs, or 0.6 percent — but all three remain within the "stable" classification. Machinery, meanwhile, is forecast to add about 4,000 jobs, or 0.8 percent, though that also falls short of the 1.5 percent threshold for "growing" status.

Textiles face the bleakest employment picture. Jobs in the sector are forecast to fall 3.5 percent, or about 5,000 positions, in the second half compared with the same period last year — the only sector among the nine classified as "declining."

The textile industry has some positive factors, including expansion of advanced materials production capacity and a recovery in apparel consumption. But it faces headwinds from rising raw material and logistics costs stemming from Middle East supply chain disruptions, US trade restrictions and competition from low-cost Chinese products. Employment growth rates in the sector have been negative for several consecutive periods: -3.7 percent in the first half of 2024, -3.6 percent in the second half of 2024, -3.6 percent in both halves of last year, and -3.0 percent in the first half of this year. The projected -3.5 percent for the second half points to a continuing structural decline.

Skills mismatches remain a persistent problem across key manufacturing sectors. Even industries that are not adding jobs are struggling to fill the positions they have. The unfilled vacancy rate in metal fabrication reached 20.2 percent in the first half of this year — more than three times the cross-industry average of 6.5 percent. Electronics and displays recorded an 18.6 percent unfilled rate, and petrochemicals 17.6 percent.

In metal fabrication, the most commonly cited reason for failing to fill vacancies was a lack of applicants with the experience employers require, at 27.0 percent. Another 21.3 percent of respondents said wages and working conditions did not meet job seekers' expectations, while 16.4 percent said the work was simply avoided by applicants.

fact0514@heraldcorp.com