From left, former US Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert, Brookings Institution Korea Chair Andrew Yeo, CSIS Senior Adviser Sidney Seiler and CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha participate in an emergency virtual forum hosted by CSIS. [CSIS YouTube channel]
From left, former US Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert, Brookings Institution Korea Chair Andrew Yeo, CSIS Senior Adviser Sidney Seiler and CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha participate in an emergency virtual forum hosted by CSIS. [CSIS YouTube channel]

Amid assessments that Donald Trump's order to scale back US-South Korea joint military exercises is a conciliatory gesture aimed at reviving North Korea-US dialogue, a leading American expert said North Korea is unlikely to respond right away.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Monday at an emergency CSIS virtual forum that Trump's order to reduce joint exercises was designed "to lure Kim Jong-un," describing it as a calculated move with North Korea-US talks in mind.

However, Cha said he does not expect North Korea to "react immediately" to Trump's overture, adding that Pyongyang "will wait a bit longer and take its time."

He said Kim is not a leader content with the status quo, and predicted that beyond securing the backing of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kim would "look for opportunities to engage with the United States or Japan."

Trump told reporters at the White House that day that Kim had responded to his request for talks, though he did not disclose when or how the response came. It remains unclear whether the response referred to Kim's reaction to the recent drill cutback order or to an earlier exchange.

Cha also noted that North Korea has refrained from major weapons tests under Trump's second term, in contrast to its behavior during the Joe Biden administration.

He said Trump consistently uses the Biden era as a benchmark, and added that Trump "seems to be reading North Korea's slower pace of military provocations compared to that period as a kind of signal."

Cha also suggested that Trump's order to scale back the exercises may partly reflect a desire to shift attention away from the Iran conflict, which shows no clear path to resolution.

"Trump seems to want Iran off the front pages," Cha said. "According to media reports, Trump is tired and bored of the Iran issue, and because there is no clear solution or easy answer, he is turning attention to other topics."

Asked whether the drill reduction was linked to frustration over South Korea's role in the Iran conflict, Cha said Trump "has grievances with many allies over Iran, and South Korea is not the only one."

"Trump certainly took a shot at South Korea specifically, but I don't think that was the main driver of this decision," he added.

On the implications for the US-South Korea alliance, Cha acknowledged that Seoul faces a confluence of challenges — including Trump's frustration over Iran and ongoing trade negotiations — but said he believes "the alliance will navigate through the crisis well."

"Trump's defining trait is that he sees everything transactionally," Cha said. "Once South Korea announces its first round of investment, Trump will be fine."

Andrew Yeo, Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, criticized Trump's remarks, saying joint exercises "are important for South Korea's defense but also serve US interests," and that it seemed as though Trump had "forgotten who our allies are and who our adversaries are."

Yeo also noted that President Lee Jae-myung "has shown interest in dialogue with North Korea," adding that if a meeting between Kim and Trump becomes possible, "it would certainly be a card that President Lee would welcome."


mokiya@heraldcorp.com