Republican Sen. Tom Tillis. [Getty Images]
Republican Sen. Tom Tillis. [Getty Images]

Concern is mounting across the US political spectrum and among foreign policy and security experts over President Donald Trump's order to sharply scale back joint US-South Korea military exercises. Criticism has come not only from the opposition Democratic Party but also from within Trump's own Republican Party. Analysts say the move appears designed to signal a resumption of direct diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but warn that reducing drills risks weakening combined readiness and deterrence at a time when North Korea's military capabilities have grown significantly through its involvement in the war in Ukraine.

Republican Sen. Tom Tillis posted on X on Monday that "South Korea, with its special military capabilities, has been a steadfast US military ally for more than 70 years," criticizing the decision to scale back joint exercises.

"Reducing joint exercises with South Korea only frees up thousands of North Korean troops to support Vladimir Putin's systematic abduction, torture, rape and murder of innocent Ukrainian civilians," Tillis wrote. The implication is that easing North Korea's military burden on the Korean Peninsula would give Pyongyang greater capacity to support Russia's war in Ukraine.

Tillis is a two-term Republican senator who last year faced intense intraparty pressure after opposing Trump's tax-cut legislation and subsequently announced he would not seek a third term. His public rebuke of a Trump decision on the US-South Korea alliance is nonetheless notable coming from a sitting member of the president's own party.

Democratic opposition has been sharper. Sen. Jack Reed, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, called the move "another reckless decision by President Trump."

"If President Trump reduces joint exercises to curry favor with a dictator, or punishes South Korea for not joining a war he started, both our allies and adversaries will conclude that America's commitments are negotiable," Reed said.

He added that "Kim Jong-un has scored a propaganda victory, and South Korea — one of our strongest allies — has been punished for no reason other than Trump's ego," and warned that "China and Russia are watching how easily Trump abandons America's alliances, and they will remember this when they decide to test us."

Democratic members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee also weighed in, saying Trump's war in Iran "is failing disastrously" and that the administration is "scaling back joint exercises with our 70-year ally South Korea because it won't help fight an illegal war." They argued that "the alliance with South Korea makes America safer, but Trump is undermining it."

Trump announced Monday on Truth Social that he had directed the defense secretary to significantly reduce joint US-South Korea military exercises. In the same post, he signaled frustration that South Korea had not cooperated sufficiently with the Iran war effort.

Among US foreign policy and security experts, another factor behind the decision has drawn attention: Trump's interest in resuming direct diplomacy with Kim Jong-un.

Andrew Yeo, the Korea chair at the Brookings Institution, told Yonhap that Trump "appears to be trying to re-engage in diplomatic exchanges with Chairman Kim." Former acting US ambassador to South Korea Robert Rapson said that while the precise trigger was hard to identify, the move was "most likely some kind of gesture to re-engage with Kim Jong-un."

Emma Chanlett-Avery, director of political and security affairs at the Asia Society, also said the announcement signaled that Trump was seeking to return to the direct diplomacy with Kim that remained unfinished from his first term.

During his first term, Trump abruptly announced a halt to joint US-South Korea exercises immediately after the Singapore summit between the two leaders in 2018. That move was also framed as a step to facilitate denuclearization negotiations with North Korea, but it sparked controversy over whether it undermined alliance readiness.

Experts said the risks this time could be even greater, given that North Korea's military capabilities have grown considerably since 2018.

Yeo said North Korea appears to have acquired new precision-strike and drone tactics through the Ukraine war, and warned that "reduced military training could weaken the readiness of US and South Korean forces to respond to potential North Korean hostilities."

Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Wall Street Journal that North Korea now fields a stronger force than before, drawing on technology and equipment acquired from Russia. "This was a mistake in 2018, but it's an even bigger mistake in 2026," he said.

Patrick Cronin, chair of Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, said the decision to weaken core alliance exercises "undermines deterrence and readiness without changing Kim Jong-un's calculus." He stressed that "dialogue is good, but we need to negotiate from a position of strength."

Experts particularly cautioned that the drill reductions should not be viewed through the same lens as past decisions, given that North Korea has accumulated real combat experience and military technology by supporting Russia in Ukraine. Chanlett-Avery said Trump's characterization of North Korea as a non-threatening state was "a concerning point for allies," given the country's advancing nuclear and missile capabilities and its support for Russia.

Some analysts, however, said the near-term impact on combined readiness may be limited. Rapson noted it was already too late to significantly scale back the joint exercises running from Monday through Aug. 27, adding that "in the short term, there will likely be little impact on overall alliance readiness."

Some observers also argued that adjusting the scale of joint exercises may be warranted given the strain US military resources are under from the Iran war and other commitments. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, told CNN that "bilateral exercises with South Korea unnecessarily drain US resources and readiness at a time when the US is becoming short on both."

Attention now turns to whether North Korea will respond to Trump's signal. Rapson said "whether Kim Jong-un responds, and when and how he does so, will be a very interesting thing to watch."

Analysts are divided on what role South Korea would play if US-North Korea talks do resume. Rapson noted that South Korean involvement was not taken for granted even in 2018, and raised the possibility that Seoul could be sidelined if Washington and Pyongyang pursue direct negotiations. Yeo, by contrast, said President Lee Jae Myung's proposal to discuss an end-of-war declaration and Trump's drill reductions could serve as "complementary measures" that provide flexibility for North Korea diplomacy, adding that "Seoul's role in setting the overall tone for dialogue on the Korean Peninsula remains important."


sjy@heraldcorp.com