Motorcyclists pass by Iran's "Zolfaghar" missile mounted above a banner bearing the face of US President Donald Trump at Azadi Square in Tehran. [EPA]
Motorcyclists pass by Iran's "Zolfaghar" missile mounted above a banner bearing the face of US President Donald Trump at Azadi Square in Tehran. [EPA]

Iran's hardline leadership does not trust the truce MOU signed with the United States in June and has instead been using the agreement to buy time while preparing for an escalation of armed conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

According to Iranian and Middle Eastern officials, Iran's hardliners view the truce MOU as an attempt to gain time for a larger offensive and have spent the past two months focused on preparations for escalation.

Those preparations included tightening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' command over regular military forces, appointing veterans with experience in the Iraq war and domestic crackdowns to key positions, and accelerating missile and drone production.

While Iranian diplomats prepared for peace negotiations with the United States, the reclusive Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei reorganized the country's security apparatus in anticipation of a wider conflict.

As a result, Iran's hardline leadership tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz by attacking vessels and expanded the theater of war into the Red Sea, which had been used as an alternative route after the strait's blockade.

Middle Eastern intelligence officials cited by the Wall Street Journal said they had gathered evidence — including through communications intercepts — that Iran's hardline leadership was regrouping to expand the war and maximize the cost of the conflict for the United States.

Intercept intelligence indicated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent commanders to Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and coordinated with Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq to plan an expansion of armed conflict with Saudi Arabia.

The escalation plans also included cutting undersea communications cables in the Persian Gulf, fomenting unrest in Shiite-majority countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and launching ground operations inside Kuwait.

Iran-linked forces have already raised the tempo of attacks since last month, striking Saudi oil facilities and US military bases in succession and hitting UAE vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sardar Mohebi, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency last month: "We made the most of the truce period. We strengthened our capabilities, accelerated missile production and improved missile precision."

Iran's posture makes it unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement to end the war anytime soon, the Wall Street Journal said.

Mohammad Hassan Santarasi, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government, said there is a widespread view inside Iran that a full-scale war has not yet begun. "What we have seen so far is interpreted through the lens of a limited, incremental 'salami tactic' aimed at attriting capabilities ahead of a larger conflict," he said.


joze@heraldcorp.com