Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidate Kim Min-seok delivers his policy speech at a joint campaign rally for party leader and supreme council member candidates at the Naju General Sports Park multipurpose gymnasium in Naju, South Jeolla Province, on Saturday. [Yonhap]
Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidate Kim Min-seok delivers his policy speech at a joint campaign rally for party leader and supreme council member candidates at the Naju General Sports Park multipurpose gymnasium in Naju, South Jeolla Province, on Saturday. [Yonhap]

Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidate Kim Min-seok has in effect seized the upper hand after winning a majority of votes in Honam — one of the decisive battlegrounds ahead of the Aug. 17 party convention.

His closest rival, Jung Chung-rae, now needs a commanding victory in the Seoul and Gyeonggi Province member vote — results due Sunday — to have any realistic hope of a comeback.

In the South Jeolla Province-Gwangju and North Jeolla Province registered-member ballots announced Saturday, Kim took 57.54 percent against Jung's 32.65 percent, a margin of 24.89 percentage points.

Kim's cumulative vote share, excluding a 5-percent weighting adjustment for South Gyeongsang Province, Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, stands at 52.21 percent, widening his lead over Jung (38.14 percent) to 14.07 percentage points.

As recently as last week — after primaries in the Chungcheong region, Yeongnam, Jeju, Incheon, Gangwon Province and Daegu-North Gyeongsang Province — the gap between first-place Kim and second-place Jung was just 1.48 percentage points.

At that stage, the prevailing view was that neither side had clearly gained the upper hand.

But with Kim pulling nearly 60 percent of the vote in Honam — the Democratic Party's traditional stronghold, home to more than one-third of all registered party members — analysts say the scales have tilted decisively in his favor.

If the trend holds, there is even talk that Kim could secure an outright majority in the first round, bypassing the need for a preferential runoff vote.

After the Honam results were announced, Kim posted on X (formerly Twitter): "The strong support from Honam reflects the people's longing for democracy and transformative growth, and I know it is also encouragement and support for the Lee Jae Myung government. I will remain humble and give everything I have until the very end."

Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidate Jung Chung-rae delivers his policy speech at a joint campaign rally for party leader and supreme council member candidates at the Wonkwang University gymnasium in Iksan, North Jeolla Province, on Saturday. [Yonhap]
Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidate Jung Chung-rae delivers his policy speech at a joint campaign rally for party leader and supreme council member candidates at the Wonkwang University gymnasium in Iksan, North Jeolla Province, on Saturday. [Yonhap]

For Jung to have any chance of reversing the outcome, he will need to beat Kim by at least 20 percentage points in the Seoul and Gyeonggi Province registered-member vote, results of which are set to be announced Sunday.

Jung acknowledged the setback in a Facebook post Saturday. "I lost badly in Honam," he wrote. "I accept that humbly and with respect." He added: "Regardless of whether I win or lose, I will do my utmost for the Democratic Party's victory and the success of the Lee Jae Myung government."

One variable that Jung's camp may find encouraging is voter turnout in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. Online voting in those two regions, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, reached 46.74 percent in Gyeonggi Province and 45.31 percent in Seoul — roughly 10 percentage points higher than the 37.63 percent recorded in South Jeolla Province-Gwangju and the 35.22 percent in North Jeolla Province.

Registered party members in Honam and in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area each account for roughly one-third of the national total. A landslide in the greater Seoul area results announced Sunday, combined with the general public polling component, could still give Jung a mathematical path to victory.

Recent polling has shown Kim and Jung running neck and neck among the general public.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is applying a preferential voting system to the leadership election. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the second-choice votes cast for the third-place candidate will be redistributed to the top two contenders to determine the final winner.


jiyun@heraldcorp.com