The Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy sign at Government Complex Sejong [Newsis]
The Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy sign at Government Complex Sejong [Newsis]

Starting next week, South Korea will begin substantive discussions on revised future electricity demand projections that incorporate three major mega-projects, as well as options for meeting that demand — including whether to build additional nuclear power plants.

The Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy announced Saturday that it will hold its fourth and fifth public forums for drafting the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand back-to-back on Thursday at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul.

The fourth forum will focus on energy policy for transitioning South Korea into an "electricity-based nation," while the fifth will address electricity demand projections through 2040 and the outlook for renewable energy deployment. The steering committee for the 12th plan had already released a demand forecast at its third forum in April.

The government is issuing a new forecast because it has since decided to proceed with three mega-projects, including the development of a semiconductor industrial complex in the Honam region.

The steering committee had previously projected that peak electricity demand in 2040 would reach 131.8 GW under a baseline scenario or 138.2 GW under an upward scenario, with annual electricity consumption — the target demand — reaching 657.6 TWh or 694.1 TWh, respectively.

That would represent roughly a 1.4-fold increase from current peak demand levels.

The government has said that demand it considers "confirmed" — driven by the Yongin and Honam semiconductor complexes and AI data centers — will require an additional 30 GW by 2040. That figure could exceed 50 GW when potential demand from electrifying transportation and heating is factored in, meaning the new forecast is expected to be substantially higher than the previous one.

The central question at the upcoming forums will be how much of the projected increase the government will classify as "confirmed demand" and incorporate into the 12th plan. No detailed basis has been provided for the additional electricity demand figures cited for the semiconductor complexes and AI data centers.

The ministry plans to continue holding forums in September and October on topics including new nuclear power plants, a coal power phase-out roadmap, electricity market reform and transmission and substation planning.

Meanwhile, at a national briefing on the "Three Mega-Projects for South Korea's Great Leap Forward" hosted by President Lee Jae-myung at Cheong Wa Dae on June 29, the government unveiled a large-scale investment plan centered on building a semiconductor production base in Gwangju, developing physical robots and constructing AI data centers.

The Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy will hold the forums at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul.


lucky@heraldcorp.com