Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Kim Min-seok (left), Jung Chung-rae and Song Young-gil sit side by side at a joint campaign speech event for the party's leadership election at Interbulgo EXCO Hotel in Daegu on Sunday. [Yonhap]
Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Kim Min-seok (left), Jung Chung-rae and Song Young-gil sit side by side at a joint campaign speech event for the party's leadership election at Interbulgo EXCO Hotel in Daegu on Sunday. [Yonhap]

With the Democratic Party of Korea's Aug. 17 leadership convention now past its midpoint, the three-way race among candidates Song Young-gil, Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok is heading into a fierce final stretch — particularly in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province and the Honam region, where roughly 70 percent of the party's voting members are concentrated. Having reversed the standings with a cumulative vote margin of 1.48 percentage points, Kim is expected to pursue a consolidation strategy while Jung presses his offensive.

On Monday, Kim is scheduled to campaign in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, while Jung and Song head separately to the Honam region. Kim will begin with a morning greeting at Sillim Station in Seoul, followed by a roundtable with current and former female lawmakers from Gyeonggi Province, a meeting with professional associations in the Seoul-Gyeonggi area, and a party member concert. The schedule reflects a strategy to squeeze out more votes in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, regions considered competitive but unfavorable for Kim.

Jung, meanwhile, will hold policy discussions with sanitation workers in North Jeolla Province and farmers in Wanju, then attend a press briefing and a party member talk concert in the province. He is expected to build on his advantage in friendly territory while sustaining his underdog appeal. On Sunday, Jung wrote on Facebook: "Mother, this is Jung Chung-rae. Please help me." He also took an apparent swipe at Kim, saying he was "appalled to see party posts being divvied up during the election as if the race were already over," adding, "I've never seen such an arrogant candidate."

After two weeks of regional primaries, Kim leads with a cumulative 95,821 votes (46.01 percent), followed by Jung with 92,735 votes (44.53 percent) and Song with 19,715 votes (9.47 percent). The gap between first and second place is just 3,086 votes, or 1.48 percentage points. When a 5 percent weighting applied to the strategic regions of North Gyeongsang Province, Daegu and South Gyeongsang Province is factored in, the margin narrows further to 1.45 percentage points.

Over the past weekend's regional primaries in Incheon, Jeju, Daegu, Gangwon Province and North Gyeongsang Province, Kim finished first in four of the five regions — all except Daegu — overtaking Jung, who had led the cumulative standings after the first week. Incheon and Jeju drew particular attention: though their vote totals are small, analysts see them as early indicators of how the race may unfold in the Greater Seoul area and the Honam region, respectively.

Party insiders caution against drawing early conclusions, however, given that conventions in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province and the Honam region — home to roughly 70 percent of voting members — have yet to be held. A Kim camp official said the 1-to-2-percentage-point gap in those areas is significant, adding that the campaign's goal is to outperform by 1 to 2 percentage points each in the metropolitan area and Honam, based on the Incheon and Jeju results.

Han Min-su, a supreme council candidate aligned with Jung, appeared on KBS Radio on Monday and acknowledged that Kim's organization is strong. He nonetheless expressed hope that voting members in Honam would generate momentum that carries through to the metropolitan area and ultimately proves decisive.

As the razor-thin race has intensified negative campaigning, concerns are growing about whether the party can unite after the convention. Allegations of a "Shincheonji connection" have refused to die down, with a photo circulating online showing President Lee Jae Myung and Lee Hee-ja — chair of the Korean Women's Association and a figure cited as a link between the president and Jung — with Jung cropped out of the original image.

Moon Jin-seog, a lawmaker aligned with President Lee, wrote on Facebook on Sunday that the photo showing the president and Lee Hee-ja alone was one "in which Jung was deliberately cut out." He said the episode showed that "the president is now being used as a tool for a smear campaign," calling it a clear crossing of the line.

Democratic Party lawmaker Park Ji-won also weighed in on SBS Radio on Monday, saying the conduct showed no respect for a sitting president and had nothing to do with Shincheonji. He said the original author of the manipulated image "will certainly be caught" and called on the party to take firm action, adding that if a candidate is found to be involved, that person should be forced to withdraw.

The vote share of Song, who sits in third place, is also seen as a potential variable. Appearing on the YouTube program "Kim Eou-joon's Humility Is Hard News Factory" on Monday, Song said an analysis of second-preference votes cast for him showed that 60 to 65 percent would go to Kim and 35 to 40 percent to Jung. He suggested that supporters worried their preferred candidate might fall short of a majority were increasingly ranking Kim or Jung first and pushing Song to second.


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