Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi Shin-jiro speaks to reporters after meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back at the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Yokosuka district headquarters in Yokosuka, south of Tokyo, in January. [AP]
Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi Shin-jiro speaks to reporters after meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back at the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Yokosuka district headquarters in Yokosuka, south of Tokyo, in January. [AP]

Japan's government has revealed the outlines of revisions to two of its three core security documents aimed at enhancing the country's counterstrike capability, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported Saturday. The three documents — the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program — govern Japan's overall security posture. The revisions made public cover the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program, both under the Defense Ministry's purview.

The Defense Ministry disclosed the outlines Friday. Central to the revisions is a plan to secure greater quantities and quality of long-range missiles capable of striking enemy missile launch sites, and to introduce long-range attack drones as part of Japan's counterstrike capability.

On counterstrike capability, the documents warn that "if we fail to secure sufficient quantity and quality, there is a risk that we will be unable to maintain adequate deterrence in the future." The revisions call for "diversifying the launch platforms" for long-range missiles and state that Japan will "enhance the effectiveness of counterstrike capability through the introduction of attack drones, among other measures."

On air defense, the documents stress the need to secure sufficient numbers of interceptor missiles and interceptor drones, saying Japan will "significantly strengthen asymmetric defensive capabilities to counter an adversary with numerical superiority."

The revisions also call for strengthening Japan's defense posture on the Pacific side and reinforcing the domestic defense industrial base. Noting that Chinese and Russian aircraft carriers and bombers have been making increasingly frequent forays into the Pacific, the documents say Japan's "surveillance capability is insufficient" there and pledge to "strengthen alert surveillance, intelligence-gathering and air defense capabilities."

The revisions also include a plan to use AI to improve the speed and accuracy of decision-making.

On Japan's domestic defense industry, the documents acknowledge that "some companies have withdrawn from the sector due to reputational risk" and mention the possible adoption of a GOCO (Government Owned, Contractor Operated) model, under which the government would secure facilities at munitions factories and entrust their operation to private contractors.

The acquisition of some defense equipment Japan had planned to procure by fiscal 2027 is running behind schedule, however.

The Defense Ministry's progress report on the fiscal 2023–2027 Defense Buildup Program — also released Friday — shows delays in the construction of frigates and patrol vessels, as well as fighter jet upgrades, the Nikkei reported. Rising unit costs for defense equipment compared with when the plan was drawn up are believed to be a contributing factor.

The Defense Buildup Program, finalized in 2022, set a target of raising Japan's defense budget to 2 percent of GDP within five years and capped total defense spending at around 43 trillion yen ($271 billion). Budget allocations for Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels have fallen short, however: only four of the five submarines originally planned have been funded, eight of 12 frigates, and six of 10 patrol vessels.

Plans to upgrade 54 F-15 fighter jets have also stalled — after funding for 18 aircraft was included in the fiscal 2023 budget, no further allocations have been made. Purchases of American-made fighters are proceeding as planned, with 32 of 40 F-35As and 21 of 25 F-35Bs secured, putting Japan four-fifths of the way through its five-year procurement targets.

The Nikkei also said delays in addressing parts shortages have left aircraft grounded, a problem that has yet to be resolved.

Meanwhile, Japan's Defense Ministry has reportedly requested a record 8.9 trillion yen for its fiscal 2027 defense budget.

Kyodo News, citing multiple sources, reported that the ministry has begun coordinating a budget request of that size to address what it calls "new forms of warfare" — including the deployment of interceptor drones and the introduction of AI for Self-Defense Force command and control. The interceptor drones are intended to counter enemy suicide drones; the plan calls for procuring large numbers of drones at lower cost than air defense missiles to sustain combat capability.

Under the AI plan, the technology would analyze vast amounts of data, propose attack targets and support rapid decision-making in Self-Defense Force command and control operations.

The ministry also plans an organizational restructuring, including the establishment of a new "Bureau of International Policy" (tentative name) to oversee defense cooperation with other countries.

Many items in the request do not specify concrete costs, however, meaning the final defense budget to be decided by the government at year's end could climb even higher. A senior Japanese government official told Kyodo that the defense budget could "ultimately reach around 10 trillion yen."


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