Infantino's bid for a fourth term hangs on Asia

FIFA President Gianni Infantino speaks at a press conference in Doha, Qatar, on Nov. 19, 2022, ahead of the season opener of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar. [Getty Images]

The fate of FIFA President Gianni Infantino's bid for a fourth consecutive term — upended by his plan to sell a private stake in World Cup commercial rights — now rests with Asia, analysts say.

Nikkei Asia reported Friday that with Europe and Africa sharply divided over Infantino, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) could hold the casting vote that determines who leads world football next.

A once-smooth path to a fourth term, derailed by World Cup privatization plan

FIFA President Gianni Infantino attends a meeting with the White House task force on the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., in November last year. [AFP]

Infantino, who has led FIFA since 2016, had planned to seek a fourth and final term at the presidential election scheduled for March next year. A victory would extend his tenure through 2031. Heading into the vote, he had secured the backing of more than 200 member associations and faced no declared challengers, making a fourth term appear all but certain.

That seemingly clear path collapsed when it emerged that Infantino had sought to raise up to $4.2 billion by selling stakes in major tournaments — including the World Cup — through a newly created entity called FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE). UEFA has maintained a boycott and is calling for his resignation.

Infantino withdrew the plan just four days after announcing it, however, and some confederations softened their criticism as a result. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) announced through its executive committee that all 54 of its member associations would continue to back Infantino.

AFC's 46 votes as tiebreaker — but Asian members remain split

An AFC-approved match ball is seen during an AFC Champions League qualifying match between Central Coast Mariners and Guangzhou at Central Coast Stadium in Gosford, Australia, in February 2015. [Getty Images]

Against this backdrop, Nikkei Asia noted that the AFC's 46 votes could prove decisive in shaping the outcome of the election.

FIFA's 211 member associations each cast one vote at the congress. By confederation, UEFA holds the most with 55, followed by CAF with 54. If UEFA and CAF end up on opposite sides of the Infantino question, their votes would in effect cancel each other out — making the AFC's 46 votes the critical variable, analysts say.

CONCACAF, which oversees North and Central America and the Caribbean, holds 35 votes. The confederation has broadly aligned with UEFA in opposing Infantino, but Mexico's declaration of support for him has raised the possibility of internal fractures.

AFC President Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa. [Getty Images]

Within the AFC itself, member associations are divided over Infantino, making the outcome difficult to predict. AFC President Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa sharply criticized the World Cup stake sale plan for being pursued without prior consultation with the six continental confederations, but whether that leadership opposition will translate into a broader anti-Infantino shift across all 46 Asian member associations remains unclear.

The Korea Football Association and the Japan Football Association have different interests from the football associations of Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia on a range of issues.

A Korea Football Association official told Nikkei Asia that Infantino had "become too political," citing his relationship with US President Donald Trump as a prime example.

At the confederation level, however, the AFC relies heavily on funding from Arab states to run its various competitions. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon and Sri Lanka have all declared their support for Infantino.

The FIFA logo. [Getty Images]

For smaller football associations that depend heavily on FIFA grants, the funding is a critical consideration. Infantino had offered each member association $40 million in exchange for supporting the World Cup stake sale plan.

Ugyen Tshechup, president of the Bhutan Football Federation, stressed that "money is important for big countries, but it is absolutely vital for small ones."

Some Asian nations, including China and Iraq, have yet to declare a clear position.

A spokesperson for the Iraq Football Association said it was "still too early to take a position," adding that "the picture is not yet clear regarding the election process or the stances of member associations."

Bi Yuan, a consultant based in Beijing, said the Chinese Football Association could fall in line with the mainstream under AFC President Salman's lead, but added that there is still time before the actual election and things could change.

Lars-Christer Olsson, a former UEFA secretary general, predicted that "the AFC is a divided continent" and that "ultimately, everything will come down to individual member associations deciding their own positions."

yckim6452@heraldcorp.com