A first-instance court's decision to fine Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon 10 million won ($6,750) — a penalty that would void his election win if upheld — is sending ripples through the conservative political landscape. Oh, who secured a fifth term as Seoul mayor and had emerged as a leading conservative presidential contender, was convicted on charges of having opinion poll costs paid on his behalf. Observers say the ruling will significantly reshape dynamics within the conservative camp for some time to come.
Oh's weakened political standing is expected to affect the movements of lawmakers aligned with him. "The momentum to consolidate forces around Mayor Oh will inevitably slow down for now," a People Power Party official said Thursday.
Rep. Cho Eun-hee, a close ally of Oh, pushed back immediately on Wednesday, saying, "It is hard to accept a guilty verdict based solely on the testimony of a witness who is difficult to trust, with no direct evidence," and called for the ruling to be corrected on appeal. Reps. Kim Jae-seop and Bae Hyun-jin, who had supported Oh's election campaign, declined to comment.
By contrast, Han Dong-hoon, an independent lawmaker and another pillar of the conservative bloc, is expected to see his political standing rise in relative terms. Under the "6-3-3 principle" set out in the special prosecutor act, a Supreme Court ruling on Oh's case could come as early as around January next year — and in the interim, Han's political space may widen considerably.
Han's return to the People Power Party, however, remains a significant hurdle. Han was expelled under the leadership of PPP Chairman Jang Dong-hyeok, and the prevailing view is that a return will not come easily as long as the current leadership remains in place. "There is no realistic way to bring down the Jang leadership," a PPP leadership official said, adding that lingering hostility within the party toward Han's allies means a return to the fold is far from straightforward.
Attention is also turning to Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok, who views Han as a rival in the next presidential race. Both inside and outside political circles, calls for conservative consolidation ahead of the 2028 general election have been raised repeatedly, making how the two men define their relationship a key variable going forward.
The People Power Party united in pushing back against the first-instance verdict. Chairman Jang wrote on Facebook that the ruling "is no more than a first-instance decision," adding that "Seoul city administration must continue without interruption, trusting in the judgment of the higher courts," and calling on the appeals court to rule wisely.
The opposition, meanwhile, welcomed the ruling, with some calling it a case of justice being served. Rep. Park Ju-min, who had been a Democratic Party candidate in the Seoul mayoral primary ahead of the local elections, called for strict adherence to the trial schedule set under the special prosecutor act and urged a swift ruling.
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