Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal. [AFP]
Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal. [AFP]

Spain is the favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy in North and Central America, according to a new statistical forecast.

Analytics firm Opta said Friday its supercomputer gives Spain a 45% chance of winning the final, compared with 26% for Argentina. The probability of the match going to extra time stands at 29%, though even accounting for that scenario, the numbers tilt toward a Spanish victory.

Spain and Argentina meet in the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, at 4 a.m. Monday (Korean Standard Time). A Spanish win would give the country its second World Cup title and first since the 2010 tournament in South Africa — a gap of 16 years.

Defending champion Argentina is chasing a fourth World Cup title and what would be only the third back-to-back championship in tournament history. The only previous sides to win consecutive titles were Italy in 1934 and 1938, and Brazil in 1958 and 1962.

The two nations have met just once at a World Cup — at the 1966 tournament in England — with Argentina winning 2-1, giving them the head-to-head edge.

The final also draws attention as a generational matchup between Lionel Messi, 39, widely regarded as the greatest player of all time, and 19-year-old rising star Lamine Yamal.

Opta also forecast the third-place match, giving France a 50.7% chance of beating England at Miami Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday morning. England's odds stand at 25.6%, with a 23.7% probability of a draw.


dbsdn1110@heraldcorp.com