The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy said Monday it launched one submarine-launched ballistic missile carrying a simulated training warhead into the open Pacific Ocean. Pictured is an intercontinental ballistic missile China's military fired into Pacific waters in September 2024. [Chinese military Weibo]
The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy said Monday it launched one submarine-launched ballistic missile carrying a simulated training warhead into the open Pacific Ocean. Pictured is an intercontinental ballistic missile China's military fired into Pacific waters in September 2024. [Chinese military Weibo]

China's military launch of a strategic missile toward the open Pacific on Monday is being read as a warning directed not only at Japan — with which Beijing's relations have been strained since last year — but also at Taiwan and the United States, some analysts say. Beijing sought to reaffirm its will to unify Taiwan while warning Washington to stay out of the issue. Analysts also say China intended to display its nuclear capabilities to the US and secure a position of parity in future negotiations. Some forecast that pressure on Japan will intensify as China's navy extends its reach into the waters where the missile was fired.

China's state-run Global Times said the launch "once again demonstrated China's resolve on the unification of Taiwan" and stressed that "no one should misjudge China's will to achieve complete unification." President Xi Jinping had also directly emphasized that goal at a ceremony marking the 105th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's founding on Tuesday, calling the resolution of the Taiwan question and the achievement of complete national unification a "historic mission." The missile launch raised the level of threat against Taiwan while also serving as a warning to Japan, which has long backed the island.

The launch can also be seen as targeting the Donald Trump administration, which has been supporting Taiwan through arms sales and other means. Some analysts say it was a warning to the United States — which continues to sell weapons to Taiwan and conduct joint exercises under the banner of "strategic ambiguity" — to stay out of the Taiwan issue.

The Nikkei newspaper noted that Xi is scheduled to visit the United States in September at Trump's invitation for a summit, and said that if the Trump administration decides to sell arms to Taiwan around the time of that visit, it could damage Xi's prestige. Ahead of such a high-profile event, China had reason to warn Washington in advance against any Taiwan arms deal, the paper argued.

Experts said the launch also served China's goal of showcasing its nuclear capabilities to the United States. Kohara, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, told Nikkei that "if fitted with a nuclear warhead, this becomes an effective means of deterrence that would make the US think twice about a nuclear strike," adding that "the launch appears to have been intended to keep the US in check."

The launch can also be interpreted as a strategic move to gain leverage in future negotiations. Kohara said the launch carried "an aspect of strategic communication — demonstrating the ability to strike the US mainland and demanding that China be treated as an equal at the negotiating table," and warned that "China may take more assertive measures in the South China Sea going forward." He also addressed China's decision to notify Japan 30 minutes before the launch, saying it was "to prevent the US from mistakenly believing it was under attack and retaliating," and that "this test was aimed at the US more than Japan."

While the launch was directed at the United States, some analysts forecast that pressure on Japan will also intensify as China begins to treat those waters as its own domain. Shin Kawashima, a professor at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, interpreted the launch as part of a strategy of "befriending distant states while pressuring nearby ones." "China is managing its relationship with the Trump administration smoothly, while seeking to adopt a stricter policy toward neighboring countries like Japan," he said.

Kawashima also said China "is looking to bring the entire western Pacific into its field of vision and build a new sphere of influence," and that "firing the missile signals that the Chinese navy intends to operate in those waters." He added that "while this missile was fired toward the open ocean, the stakes will rise further," and that China could eventually "fire missiles aimed at landing within Japan's exclusive economic zone."


kate01@heraldcorp.com