An interior view of the Nokbeon-yeok e-Pyeonhansesang Castle complex in Eungam-dong, Eunpyeong-gu, the first apartment in northern Eunpyeong-gu where an 84-square-meter unit crossed the 1.5 billion won threshold. [The Herald Business DB]
An interior view of the Nokbeon-yeok e-Pyeonhansesang Castle complex in Eungam-dong, Eunpyeong-gu, the first apartment in northern Eunpyeong-gu where an 84-square-meter unit crossed the 1.5 billion won threshold. [The Herald Business DB]

As buying demand spreads to Seoul's outer districts — including Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, Guro, Gwanak and Geumcheon — following the expiration of the capital gains tax surcharge exemption for multi-home owners, the so-called "national standard" apartment type (exclusive use area of 84 square meters) is now regularly changing hands above 1.5 billion won ($979,000) in major complexes around the Nokbeon and Eungam neighborhoods of Eunpyeong-gu. Price expectations are rising even in key complexes in Seoul's northwestern corridor, which had until recently remained in the mid-price range.

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's actual transaction price disclosure system, an 84-square-meter unit at Hillstate Nokbeon in Nokbeon-dong, Eunpyeong-gu set a new record high Wednesday, selling for 1.53 billion won on the 19th floor. The same unit type had traded at 1.45 billion won in December 2021 during the real estate boom before falling as low as the 800 million won range, but it has now surpassed that previous peak for the first time in roughly five years.

Nearby complexes are showing a similar trend. An 84-square-meter unit at Nokbeon-yeok e-Pyeonhansesang Castle in Eungam-dong changed hands at 1.54 billion won on the 18th floor on May 22, marking the first time a national-standard unit in northern Eunpyeong-gu had crossed the 1.5 billion won mark, excluding complexes near Jeungsan-dong and Susaek-dong around Digital Media City station. The same unit type continued to trade in the 1.5 billion won range, selling again at 1.52 billion won on June 22.

The dynamic is partly self-reinforcing: because buyers are concentrating on apartments priced below 1.5 billion won — the threshold under which the maximum 600 million won mortgage limit applies based on KB market prices — demand pressure is paradoxically pushing up prices for units that had previously traded below that level.

The head of a licensed real estate agency in Nokbeon-dong said the recent record-high transaction at Hillstate Nokbeon was driven by "downsizing" demand from sellers moving out of Ichon-dong. "We're seeing young newlywed couples looking for homes under 1.5 billion won, and more recently middle-aged and older buyers with larger asset bases who are looking to reduce their tax burden," the agent said. The area's natural surroundings — flanked by Bukhansan and Baengnyeonsan — combined with a relatively new large-scale complex and transit-oriented location are proving strong selling points, the agent added.

Eunpyeong-gu apartment prices had lagged behind other parts of Seoul for some time, but the pace of gains has accelerated of late. According to the Korea Real Estate Board's weekly apartment price trend for the fifth week of June, released Thursday, the cumulative change in Eunpyeong-gu's sale price index this year stood at 5.39 percent, compared with a full-year change of just 0.79 percent last year.

KB Real Estate's June monthly housing time-series data also confirms the upward trend. Eunpyeong-gu's apartment sale price index reached 104.9, the highest level since November 2022. The index uses January of this year as the base of 100.0. That compares with a reading of 95.6 in June 2024, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment over two years. The average sale price per square meter for apartments in Eunpyeong-gu also exceeded 12 million won for the first time in June.

Rising prices at existing complexes are also feeding into the market value of units set to be supplied through redevelopment projects. Hillstate Medialre in Daejo-dong, scheduled for move-in this October, has seen active trading since the resale restriction on general pre-sale units was lifted on May 28. An 84-square-meter move-in right traded at 1.59 billion won on the 16th floor on May 30. A 74-square-meter move-in right also changed hands at 1.41 billion won on the 18th floor on June 5 — above the top pre-sale price of 1.38 billion won for the same unit type when it was offered in the general pre-sale in May last year.

The Galhyeon District 1 redevelopment zone, considered the largest urban renewal project in northern Seoul, is also drawing attention. The site will deliver 4,467 units in a large-scale redevelopment close to Yeonsinnae station, served by subway Lines 3 and 6 as well as the GTX-A express rail line. Lotte Engineering & Construction was selected as contractor as early as 2020, and the project has gained momentum since ground was broken last December and a consolidated review was passed in May of this year.

Industry observers expect the general pre-sale price for Galhyeon District 1 to be set roughly 10 percent higher than that of Hillstate Medialre. Continued increases in raw material costs and construction expenses, combined with actual transaction prices for new Eunpyeong-gu complexes now hovering around 1.5 billion won, are likely to push the pre-sale price benchmark higher as well.

Kim Hyo-seon, a senior real estate specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said the housing market is facing broad-based upward pressure, with the 1.5 billion won threshold for national-standard units being breached not only in areas such as Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk — long seen as relatively affordable — but also in mid-priced districts including Eunpyeong-gu, Gangseo-gu and Seongbuk-gu.

Kim added that rising jeonse prices have fueled a "might as well buy" mentality, while higher pre-sale prices in Seoul's outer areas have entrenched the perception that home prices are unlikely to fall easily. "Against a backdrop of broad inflation, the polarization between Seoul and the regions is also becoming more pronounced," she said.


quq@heraldcorp.com