Two of three third-place teams from Groups J, K and L must finish below South Korea

South Korea's national football team returns to their base camp in Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 25 (local time) after losing to South Africa in their Group A finale at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, leaving them waiting on results from other groups to secure a round-of-32 berth. Head coach Hong Myung-bo listens to reporters' questions at a press conference ahead of training at Sapopan Chivas Valle Verde. [Yonhap]
South Korea's national football team returns to their base camp in Guadalajara, Mexico, on June 25 (local time) after losing to South Africa in their Group A finale at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, leaving them waiting on results from other groups to secure a round-of-32 berth. Head coach Hong Myung-bo listens to reporters' questions at a press conference ahead of training at Sapopan Chivas Valle Verde. [Yonhap]

If South Korea advance to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, they will face Belgium in Seattle, Washington.

The South Korean squad, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, finished Group A in third place with one win and two losses — three points — after falling to South Africa on June 25 (Korean Standard Time), ending the group stage with a precarious standing.

In this expanded 48-team tournament, the top two finishers from each of the 12 groups advance to the round of 32, along with the eight best third-place teams across all groups.

Unable to secure advancement on their own results, South Korea are waiting on outcomes from the remaining groups, hoping to scrape through as one of those eight third-place qualifiers.

Under the tournament bracket, the third-place finisher in Group A would face either the Group E winner in Boston on June 30 or the Group G winner in Seattle on July 2.

On Saturday, FIFA confirmed that Germany, the Group E winner, would meet Paraguay — the Group D third-place finisher — in the round of 32.

That ruling sent South Korea's potential path to Seattle, where Belgium claimed the Group G top spot Saturday with a 5-1 rout of New Zealand.

As of Saturday, South Korea ranked eighth among the 12 third-place teams — below Croatia of Group L, which was seventh and still had its final group-stage match to play.

To advance, South Korea need at least two of the three third-place finishers from Groups J, K and L — whose final matches are played Sunday — to finish with a worse record than their own.

Foreign media outlets and statistical sites now rate South Korea's chances of elimination far higher than their chances of advancing.

Football analytics firm Opta put South Korea's round-of-32 probability at 87.76 percent after the Group A matches concluded June 25, then cut it to 53.24 percent on Friday before dropping it further to 31.51 percent on Saturday.

In Group J, Austria (three points, three goals scored, three conceded) and Algeria (three points, two scored, four conceded) meet with identical records. South Korea advance if Austria win, or if Algeria win by a margin of two goals or more.

In Group K, third-place Democratic Republic of Congo (one draw, one loss) must fail to beat fourth-place Uzbekistan (two losses). If Uzbekistan win, they become the group's third-place team — but their current goal difference of minus-7 (one scored, eight conceded) means they would need to win by six or more goals to leapfrog South Korea.

In Group L, second-place Ghana (one win, one draw) must beat third-place Croatia (one win, one loss) for South Korea to gain the edge in the third-place standings.


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