South Korea's chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup have dropped to 69 percent, according to football statistics firm Opta.
On Friday, Opta lowered South Korea's knockout-stage probability from 73 percent to 69 percent after Ecuador beat Germany in the Group E finale to finish third with one win, one draw and one loss — four points. South Korea now ranks fifth among the 12 third-place teams across all groups.
The team's odds had soared to 94 percent after defeating the Czech Republic in their opening match, with their chances of topping the group reaching 44 percent. Back-to-back losses to Mexico and South Africa dropped the figure to 87 percent, and Ecuador's upset pushed it further to 69 percent.
Still, the odds remain above 50 percent. South Korea's goal difference stands at minus-1, which is not severely damaging. Scotland, also with one win and two losses in Group C but a goal difference of minus-3, has just a 6 percent chance of advancing, per Opta.
US sports outlet The Athletic also put the round-of-32 probability for teams with three points at 70 percent, adding that a goal difference of zero or better would push the figure to 99 percent.
Among teams that have yet to complete their third group match, Paraguay in Group D and Algeria in Group J share South Korea's three points but have a worse goal difference of minus-2.
This tournament expanded to 48 nations, with 32 teams advancing from 12 groups — the top two finishers from each group, plus the eight best third-place teams. Third-place rankings are determined by points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play score and FIFA ranking, in that order. Bosnia and Herzegovina, third in Group B with four points, have already secured a place in the round of 32.
South Korea suffered a shock defeat to South Africa amid criticism of coach Hong Myung-bo's in-game management, with former goalkeeper Kim Young-gwang calling for Hong's dismissal and claiming the coach had "great-manager syndrome" in benching Son Heung-min.
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