US military counts far more Strait of Hormuz transits than civilian trackers amid stalled Iran talks

US military says about 1,000 commercial vessels have passed through the strait since the April 8 truce — well above civilian estimates of around 650

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but disappeared over the past 24 hours as negotiations between the United States and Iran remain deadlocked.

Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing its own vessel-tracking data, that no commercial shipping was observed in the strait on Thursday morning, while only three transits were recorded in each direction on Wednesday.

Of the vessels that exited the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, only three were identified: one Iran-linked fuel tanker and two small general cargo ships. Three vessels entered the gulf that day — one Iran-linked bulk carrier, one asphalt carrier and one general cargo ship.

Satellite imagery analyzed by TankerTrackers.com, which monitors vessels suspected of evading US sanctions, showed four Iranian crude oil tankers anchored near Bandar-e Jask, an Iranian port city on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait of Hormuz. The tankers were believed to have left the Persian Gulf on June 1.

Bloomberg said those four vessels were not included in its transit count for Wednesday and Thursday.

Bloomberg attributed the continued near-halt in Hormuz traffic to the lack of meaningful progress in truce negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The two countries have been working toward a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz first, deferring denuclearization talks to a later stage.

The MOU negotiations — which had been described as imminent — have stalled amid objections from US hardliners and Iranian frustration over Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Tensions have also been kept alive by a series of limited military exchanges between US and Iranian forces.

US Central Command said Thursday on X, formerly Twitter, that it had just shot down four Iranian suicide drones fired toward the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM said the drones "posed an immediate threat to maritime traffic in the region," adding that US forces had struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island as a defensive measure against further attacks.

The oil tanker Odessa, which escaped the Strait of Hormuz just before it was blockaded again, arrives off the coast of Seosan, South Chungcheong Province, on May 8. [Yonhap]

Amid these developments, widespread GPS jamming and tracking interference have been reported across the Strait of Hormuz area.

Many vessels have been sailing with their transponders switched off to avoid detection or seizure.

Iran-linked ships have long employed this tactic, turning off their transponders when passing through the Strait of Hormuz and reactivating them only upon reaching the Strait of Malacca.

In contrast to civilian data, the US military maintains that the actual number of vessels transiting the strait is far higher.

A CENTCOM official told Bloomberg that roughly 1,000 commercial vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the approximately two months since the truce between the two countries took effect on April 8 — significantly more than the roughly 650 estimated by civilian organizations relying on transponder data and similar sources.

The US military tracks the movements of large cargo ships and container vessels — excluding smaller craft — using aerial, maritime and space-based surveillance assets.

The covert transits conducted with transponders off are also affecting international oil prices.

Asked aboard Air Force One on Thursday how much oil was flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said he did not want to say how much, "but it's a lot." He added: "There's a tremendous amount of oil being supplied to the world that people don't even know is coming out. That's why oil is $97 a barrel and not $300 a barrel."

hope@heraldcorp.com