Kim Yong-beom says Korea's near-20% nominal growth is real but unfamiliar, driven by chips and AI — and warns the true test comes at year-end and into next year, when liquidity could flood the property market

Kim Yong-beom, chief of the presidential policy office, briefs reporters at the Korea Press Center set up in Rome on the sidelines of a Korea-Italy business roundtable on June 12, local time. [Yonhap]
Kim Yong-beom, chief of the presidential policy office, briefs reporters at the Korea Press Center set up in Rome on the sidelines of a Korea-Italy business roundtable on June 12, local time. [Yonhap]

"Money has repeatedly tended to flow into the real estate market in the end. It is hard to say with confidence that this time will be any different."

Kim Yong-beom, chief of the presidential policy office at Cheong Wa Dae, made the remarks Saturday in a Facebook post titled "The joy, the unfamiliarity, and the fear of a near-20% nominal-growth economy."

Kim said South Korea's nominal GDP growth rate this year appears set to exceed double digits, adding that the national debt ratio is expected to fall back below 50 percent and that per capita national income of $40,000 — originally projected for 2028 — now looks achievable well ahead of schedule.

Yet Kim said the numbers feel unfamiliar. "What is even more unfamiliar is the source of this boom," he wrote. "The figures are largely the product of the semiconductor and AI-related sectors. The current nominal growth is the result of income earned overseas and improved corporate profitability."

He noted a sharp disconnect between headline indicators and ground-level conditions. "Macro indicators are running hot, but self-employed workers still feel the cold," he wrote. "Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are posting explosive operating profits, while neighborhood storefronts worry about vacancies. Share prices are heading toward all-time highs, yet many people are still contemplating closing their businesses."

Kim also flagged emerging risk factors. He said real GDP grew 3.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, while real gross domestic income surged 13.2 percent — a gap of 9.4 percentage points he said had never been seen in the past 25 years. He attributed the divergence to soaring semiconductor prices, which have made what Korea sells far more expensive than what it buys. "This means the amount of money that will flow into the hands of households and businesses is far larger than the statistics suggest," he said.

Kim predicted the mood would shift noticeably in the second half of the year. Once first-half earnings are confirmed and the scale of performance bonuses becomes clear, he said, luxury consumption could revive and buying sentiment in preferred residential areas could stir again.

"The real test comes at year-end and into next year," he wrote. "We have collectively learned where liquidity ultimately heads. Looking back, money has repeatedly tended to flow into the real estate market. It is hard to say with confidence that this time will be any different."

Kim said real estate taxation must be normalized and that a rational adjustment of property holding taxes and capital gains taxes "is necessary and the right direction." At the same time, he warned that this cycle is more likely to be driven by cash-rich buyers rather than those taking on debt, and that once people become convinced the returns outweigh the tax burden, most regulations may prove insufficient.

"The key question is a political-economic one: where to channel this money," Kim said. "If the national wealth earned by the semiconductor industry is absorbed as unearned real estate gains and the fruits of growth are concentrated among a few, this boom will not last long."

He added that if fiscal capacity and corporate profits can be channeled toward young people, vulnerable groups and future industries, "this boom could become the starting point for Korea's economy to finally emerge from the low-growth tunnel it has been trapped in for so long."

"After more than 20 years, we are once again confronted with a record-level prosperity — and with it, a kind of choice we have not faced in a long time," he wrote. "An unprecedented boom demands imagination equal to the moment, and the execution capacity to turn that imagination into reality."

Separately, an analysis of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's actual transaction price disclosure system by real estate platform Zigbang showed that 1,279 purchase contracts were signed in Dongtan-gu, Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, in May alone. Given that transaction registrations can be filed up to 30 days after a contract is signed, that figure is expected to rise further.

The May tally is more than double the 503 transactions recorded in the same period a year earlier. It also exceeds by about 200 the October figure of 1,043 — a month when buying had surged into Dongtan due to a balloon effect after all of Seoul and 12 areas of Gyeonggi Province were designated as land transaction permit zones and regulated areas. A cumulative 4,940 homes have changed hands in Dongtan so far this year. Industry observers attribute much of the surge to semiconductor industry workers — nicknamed "Samjeonix," a portmanteau of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — snapping up apartments in the transit-oriented area around Dongtan Station.

Dongtan apartment prices jumped after bonus announcements, and the 40-somethings who lived there moved to Bundang [Real Estate 360] Amid a boom in the semiconductor industry, apartment prices in Dongtan-gu, Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, have posted unprecedented growth for three consecutive weeks, with nearby real estate agents saying "Samjeonix … "

성과급 발표되자 쑥 올라간 동탄 아파트, 거기 살던 40대는 분당으로 갔다[부동산360]

성과급 발표되자 쑥 올라간 동탄 아파트, 거기 살던 40대는 분당으로 갔다[부동산360]

[헤럴드경제=홍승희 기자] 반도체 산업 활황에 힘입어 경기도 화성시 동탄구 아파트값이 3주 연속 전례 없는 성장률을 기록하고 있는 가운데 인근 공인중개사들은 “삼전닉
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