100 days in, Trump's Iran war has no end in sight

30,000 casualties, oil prices up 37% — wounds spread across the Middle East

Beirut airstrikes and missile salvos shake fragile truce

US and Iran deadlocked over $24 billion in frozen assets

Trump says 'it will take time' as midterm pressure mounts

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US President Donald Trump (left) and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are carefully maintaining ceasefire negotiations despite US airstrikes on southern Iran on May 25. As Iran mobilizes diplomatic efforts to build support for its position in the talks, Trump is set to chair a Cabinet meeting on June 27 to discuss the administration's response to the Iran conflict. [EPA]

The war between the United States, Israel and Iran marked its 100th day on Sunday, with no end in sight. Donald Trump, who declared shortly after the conflict began that it would be over in "four to five weeks," has since acknowledged the reality of a prolonged fight, saying recently that "it will take some time." Military clashes have continued along the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanese front even after a ceasefire agreement was reached on April 8, keeping tensions across the Middle East at a boil.

The US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire now appears to be unraveling. According to Reuters, Israel struck the Dahiyeh district on the southern outskirts of Beirut on Sunday — the first Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese capital since a new ceasefire proposal was announced under US mediation. Dahiyeh is considered a key Hezbollah stronghold.

Iran responded almost immediately, firing missiles toward Israel. The Israeli military said it detected the incoming projectiles and intercepted them with its air defense systems.

The exchange has introduced a new complication into ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran has consistently demanded that the Lebanon ceasefire hold as a precondition for any end-of-war talks. Iran's parliamentary National Security Committee warned that Israel's Beirut strike would bring "a painful response," while Israel maintained a hard line, saying a direct Iranian attack "could serve as justification for expanding military operations."

Khamenei is gone, but war's objectives remain unmet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference in Jerusalem on March 19, as tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. [Reuters]

The reality on the ground has diverged sharply from what the United States had hoped for at the outset. On the first day of the war, US and Israeli forces killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dealt a severe blow to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command. At the time, some analysts predicted the Iranian regime could be destabilized.

Instead, Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of supreme leader, and hardliners have only grown more influential. Trump recently signaled a shift in tone, saying he would consider it "an honor" to meet with Mojtaba.

The nuclear issue remains unresolved. The US and Iran are working to finalize the text of a memorandum of understanding to end the war, but the central sticking point — what to do with Iran's highly enriched uranium — has been deferred to future negotiations. US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Iranian negotiating team have been holding back-channel contacts over uranium disposal but have yet to find common ground.

CNN recently reported, citing satellite imagery analysis, that Iran has restored 50 of the 69 underground missile base tunnels destroyed in airstrikes. The finding suggests the US goal of neutralizing Iran's missile capabilities has not been fully achieved.

The human toll continues to mount. Iran's Health Ministry says at least 3,468 Iranians have been killed and more than 26,500 wounded. Twenty-six Israelis have also died, along with 13 US service members. Total casualties across all sides are estimated at around 30,000.

The economic shock has spread far beyond the Middle East. After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, daily ship traffic through the waterway — once more than 100 vessels a day — plunged to about three, in effect paralyzing a chokepoint that handles roughly 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil.

Oil prices have surged accordingly. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading around $67 a barrel in late February, just before the war began. It has since climbed past $90 — a rise of about 37 percent.

The International Energy Agency said more than 80 energy facilities across the Middle East have been struck during the conflict. Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimated that reconstruction costs could reach as much as $58 billion (about 90 trillion won).

'Return our money first' vs. 'Give up your nukes first' — a gap that won't close

A pedestrian walks past an anti-American mural depicting US and Iranian negotiators facing each other across a table, near the former US embassy in Tehran on May 26, local time. [EPA]

The biggest sticking point in end-of-war negotiations is Iran's frozen assets. Tehran is demanding the release of approximately $24 billion (about 37 trillion won) in assets frozen by the United States. Iran has proposed that some assets be unfrozen immediately upon an initial ceasefire agreement, with the remainder returned in stages.

Washington, however, is reportedly considering using a portion of those assets to help fund war damage recovery for Gulf allies including Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi pushed back sharply on Monday, saying Iran's assets are "neither war spoils for the United States nor a compensation fund for its allies." He went further, claiming that "some Gulf states cooperated in the attack on Iran" and arguing they should be the ones paying reparations.

Iran insists that releasing the frozen assets is the starting point for building trust, while the United States maintains that scaling back Iran's nuclear program and resolving the uranium question must come first.

Lebanon is also complicating the talks. Iran argues that negotiations with the United States are meaningless as long as clashes between Hezbollah and Israel continue. The United States, for its part, is trying to keep the Lebanon issue separate from the end-of-war negotiations.

Pakistan is currently mediating between the two sides. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi recently visited Tehran and is said to have delivered a personal letter to Mojtaba Khamenei's circle. Islamabad is working behind the scenes to arrange additional high-level talks between Washington and Tehran.

In a recent NBC interview, Trump said Iran is "strong and proud" and that "it will take time for them to do what they have to do." He added that the two sides are "very close to a deal," but warned that "if no deal is reached, we will strike again."

sjy@heraldcorp.com