Downtrend stretches back to October; US CLARITY Act, strategic reserve debate loom as key variables

Analysts say Bitcoin could slide to the $50,000 level. [Reuters]
Analysts say Bitcoin could slide to the $50,000 level. [Reuters]

By Jung Yoon-hee, The Herald Business

Bitcoin, the world's largest virtual asset by market capitalization, recently fell below $60,000 to hit a 52-week low. Even as expectations grow for an end to the US-Iran war, the cryptocurrency has struggled to find its footing.

According to crypto data firm CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin dropped to the $59,000 range on June 6 and has since been trading between roughly $59,000 and $64,000.

Bitcoin has been on a consistent downtrend since peaking last October, falling more than 50 percent from its all-time high of $126,198, set on Oct. 7, 2025.

Analysts attribute the weakness to a combination of factors: outflows from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, Strategy's decision to sell its Bitcoin holdings, and the anticipated listing of SpaceX shares.

According to Tiger Research, more than $2.29 billion (approximately 3.5 trillion won) flowed out of Bitcoin spot ETFs in May — the largest monthly outflow of the year.

"Until last year, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs brought institutional money into the market and acted as a tailwind, but this year institutions are leading the outflows," said Ahn Gwang-ho, a researcher at Tiger Research. He added that the outflows have pushed Bitcoin's price lower, triggering cascading liquidations of leveraged positions in the crypto futures market and amplifying the decline.

The proliferation of perpetual futures products tied to traditional equities on overseas derivatives exchanges has also dispersed demand for leverage, analysts say, weighing on Bitcoin's liquidity.

A prime example came this month, when global crypto exchange Binance listed a series of perpetual futures contracts on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Hyundai Motor, allowing traders to take positions with up to 20 times leverage.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price is expected to hinge on whether the US Senate passes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — known as the CLARITY Act — and on ongoing discussions around a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Kim Min-seung, head of research at Korbit Research Center, identified the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve debate and the recently introduced American Reserve Modernization Act as the variables most likely to shape the virtual asset market going forward.

"If Bitcoin becomes a US strategic asset, not only the federal government but most financial institutions could allocate a portion of their portfolios to it — which could have an even greater impact than the approval of spot ETFs," Kim said.


yuni@heraldcorp.com