Joachim Klement, a German-born mathematician, economist and veteran investment strategist, has picked the Netherlands as his winner of the 2026 North America World Cup — the same expert who correctly predicted the champion in three consecutive tournaments.
Klement, a strategist at British investment bank Panmure Liberum, said in an interview with CBS that aired Wednesday that he had chosen "a team that is not considered a strong favorite this time around," adding that the Netherlands is "one of those countries that consistently outperforms its expected average results when you consider its underlying national conditions."
"Brazil and Argentina, along with European football powerhouses like Germany, France and Spain, are always at or near the top," he said. "But there are teams that outperform expectations far more consistently than their objective strength would suggest — and the Netherlands is one of them."
![The Netherlands national football team [KNVB]](https://wimg.heraldcorp.com/news/cms/2026/06/11/news-p.v1.20260611.38b1896bebd04b61b37d8ba2e09b0cf8_P1.jpg)
"Controversially, the Netherlands has never won the World Cup," Klement said. "Yet despite being a small country, they have already reached the final three times. That clearly shows how well-developed their culture and system for nurturing talent is."
He also noted that while the Netherlands lacks a transcendent star in the mold of Argentina's Lionel Messi, the squad's quality is remarkably even across the board, leaving no obvious weak points. "They have really good defensive strength," he said.
He went on to say that the old adage — "offense wins games, defense wins tournaments" — applies more to football than to any other sport.
Three-for-three: the model weighing population, climate, GDP and FIFA rankings
Klement currently serves as a strategist at Panmure Liberum and has spent more than 20 years in finance, having previously served as head of asset allocation and chief investment officer at major Swiss private banks.
He holds a master's degree in mathematics from ETH Zurich and a master's degree in economics from the University of Hagen.
He first gained wider public recognition by correctly predicting the World Cup winner three tournaments in a row.
Klement called Germany's victory at the 2014 Brazil World Cup, France's triumph at the 2018 Russia World Cup and Argentina's title at the 2022 Qatar World Cup.
![Argentina, winners of the 2022 Qatar World Cup. [Getty Images]](https://wimg.heraldcorp.com/news/cms/2026/06/11/news-p.v1.20260611.a6443e2a6fa2486597f29005435d82d1_P1.jpg)
Klement built his forecasting model by applying his knowledge of economics and mathematical modeling to football.
The model goes well beyond tactics and on-field results. It factors in national infrastructure variables — population size, climate and per capita GDP — as well as FIFA's official world rankings.
"A larger population gives you a deeper talent pool to draw from," he said. "You also need a climate where football can be played year-round. If it's too hot or too cold, you simply can't play, and that becomes an inherent disadvantage."
He also said a country needs to be wealthy enough to build the infrastructure required to develop talent. "Having a large talent pool alone is not enough — you also need schools and training facilities to turn raw talent into world-class players," he said, adding that he tracks FIFA rankings to identify which teams are fielding a particularly strong generation of players at any given time.
Klement cautioned, however, against placing too much faith in the model, saying he built it partly "to satirize the arrogance of economists who believe they can predict things they know nothing about." He also attributed his three consecutive correct calls to luck — "like flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row."
ygmoon@heraldcorp.com
