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SpaceX, the rocket company that embodies Elon Musk's ambitions, launched its initial public offering Thursday at $135 per share, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion (about 2,660 trillion won). But investors remain sharply divided over whether that price tag is justified.
Morningstar put SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion (about 1,200 trillion won) — less than half the IPO target — according to the Wall Street Journal, Yonhap News Agency said, citing the research firm's assessment Wednesday.
Morningstar analysts said SpaceX's business plans rest on a number of unresolved engineering challenges.
Ark Invest, which holds SpaceX as its largest position, offered a contrasting view, saying the $1.75 trillion target, while based on assumptions about the future, "reflects a realistic growth trajectory." The asset manager went further, projecting SpaceX's valuation could reach $2.5 trillion (about 3,800 trillion won) by 2030.
Retail investors are expected to play a significant role on SpaceX's first trading day — and with that comes heightened risk. High-profile stocks have tumbled sharply within weeks of a splashy debut before.
Historical data compiled by Jay Ritter, an emeritus professor at the University of Florida, shows that roughly one in four IPO stocks falls to less than half its listing price within three years. The one-year post-IPO track records of major technology companies have also been mixed, according to FactSet data. Palantir surged 153 percent in its first year relative to its closing price on listing day, while Airbnb gained 25 percent and Tesla rose 18 percent.
On the other side, ride-sharing platform Uber fell 21 percent over the same period, and Meta Platforms tumbled 31 percent.
SpaceX secures investment-grade credit ratings
SpaceX told investors it received investment-grade ratings from major credit rating agencies — Moody's, Fitch and S&P — Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing sources, Yonhap News Agency reported.
Some corners of the bond market are also watching for the possibility that SpaceX could issue corporate bonds after its listing, Bloomberg added.
Analysts at CreditSights said in an investor note this week that they expect SpaceX to tap the bond market shortly after its IPO. The company has a $20 billion bridge loan maturing in September next year — debt it assumed in March when it took over the liabilities of X, formerly Twitter, and xAI.
According to SpaceX's IPO filing, that loan accounted for the bulk of the company's long-term debt of $29.1 billion as of late March.
SpaceX also holds key contracts set to generate substantial revenue. Google agreed to pay SpaceX $30 billion under a cloud services agreement valid through mid-2029, and a separate deal with Anthropic is valued at $45 billion over the next three years.
yul@heraldcorp.com
