Democratic Party holds 80 of 118 seats in 12th Seoul City Council, leaving Oh facing a rocky road; a coalition government — drawing on precedents from Gyeonggi Province and Daegu — is among the options being discussed, though analysts say it will not be easy

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon speaks during a plenary session of the 336th regular session of the Seoul Metropolitan Council. [Provided by Seoul Metropolitan Government]
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon speaks during a plenary session of the 336th regular session of the Seoul Metropolitan Council. [Provided by Seoul Metropolitan Government]

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon secured a fifth term in the June 3 local elections and returned to City Hall, but a newly opposition-dominated city council is expected to make governing difficult. His dramatic victory instantly elevated him to a leading conservative presidential contender, meaning the next four years will serve as a test of his political skills. Whether he can forge a working relationship with the Democratic Party of Korea — the opposition force in Seoul city politics — will be a key measure of his tenure, and a formal coalition government has emerged as one of the options under discussion.

According to local political circles, the 12th Seoul City Council ended up with the Democratic Party winning 80 of 118 seats and the People Power Party taking 38 — a near-reversal of the 2022 result, when the PPP held 76 seats against the Democratic Party's 36. The PPP's tally falls two seats short of the 40-seat threshold — one-third of the total — needed to sustain the mayor's veto power.

Oh acknowledged the problem Tuesday morning during an appearance on JoongAng Ilbo's YouTube program "Hwang Hyeon-hui's Uncomfortable Yeouido." "What worries me a little is that our share of city council seats is now below one-third," he said. "When you fall below one-third, there will be many situations where I cannot get things done my way. If we had just two more seats, we could negotiate when the Democratic Party makes unreasonable demands — there would be room to give and take."

The election outcome echoes the political situation of 2010, when Oh staged a come-from-behind victory over Democratic Party candidate Han Myeong-sook. He won narrowly that year, but the 8th Seoul City Council was dominated by the Democratic Party with 79 seats against 27 for the Grand National Party — the PPP's predecessor — creating the same opposition-heavy dynamic. The Democratic Party used its majority to force through an "eco-friendly free school lunch support ordinance" over Oh's objections. As the council pushed through the free-lunch ordinance and its related budget, Oh refused to attend council sessions in protest.

In the process, the budget for Oh's flagship projects — including the West Sea Waterway and the Han River Arts Island — was cut entirely. The standoff escalated into a public referendum on free school lunches in August 2011; when voter turnout fell short of the required threshold and the count was canceled, Oh resigned midterm.

Observers worry a similar scenario could play out in the 12th council. The Han River ferry service is the most prominent flashpoint. Democratic Party council members have long criticized the service as a showy, rushed project that wastes public funds. PPP members of the outgoing 11th council plan to push through a motion to amend the MOU governing the Han River ferry operation before the plenary session closes, but Democratic Party members oppose it. The motion would allow the city to provide fiscal support from its budget until the ferry service reaches its break-even point. Even if PPP members pass the motion before the 11th council dissolves, the Democratic Party could well revisit the relevant ordinances and the entire fiscal support framework once the 12th council convenes.

A potential clash also looms over a TBS (Traffic Broadcasting System) normalization support ordinance that the Democratic Party is expected to pursue. Park Yu-jin, a Democratic Party Seoul council member who won re-election, plans to introduce the ordinance. The 11th council, under PPP leadership, had previously passed an ordinance abolishing Seoul's financial support for TBS, halting the city's operating grants to the broadcaster from June 2024. Shortly after his election victory, Oh addressed the TBS issue, saying the public broadcaster "has long since fallen into being Kim Eo-jun's show" and that "there has been almost no reflection or effort to change course — and the result is TBS's current standing." He left the door slightly open, however, adding that he would "not completely close off the possibility of a fresh start in a new atmosphere."

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon receives a congratulatory bouquet in the lobby of Seoul City Hall on Wednesday. [Yonhap]
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon receives a congratulatory bouquet in the lobby of Seoul City Hall on Wednesday. [Yonhap]

With a string of contentious issues waiting to be resolved, Oh needs a reliable channel of communication with the opposition. Appearing on TV Chosun's News 9 on Friday, he addressed the opposition-heavy council structure directly. "That, too, is the choice and will of Seoul's voters, and I will respect it and move forward on the path of cooperative governance," he said.

Political observers say strengthening the mayor's political affairs team is unavoidable if he wants better communication with the council — not only by expanding the current five-person unit but by introducing what some are calling a "symbolic change" to its composition. One option being floated is a formal coalition arrangement of the kind attempted under then-Gyeonggi Province Governor Nam Gyeong-pil.

The 9th Gyeonggi Provincial Assembly, inaugurated in 2014, was opposition-heavy, with the New Politics Alliance for Democracy — the Democratic Party's predecessor — holding 78 seats against 50 for the Saenuri Party. Nam, elected on the Saenuri Party ticket — the PPP's predecessor — appointed Lee Gi-woo, a former Uri Party lawmaker affiliated with the New Politics Alliance, as deputy governor for social integration, a post that carried real authority over personnel and budget decisions for the province's health and welfare, environment, and women and family departments. The coalition continued when Kang Deuk-gu, a Democratic Party member and later a Democratic Party lawmaker, was subsequently appointed to the same deputy governor role.

Then-Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin's appointment of a Democratic Party figure as economic deputy mayor stands as another notable example of cross-party governance. In 2021, Kwon appointed Hong Eui-rak, a former Democratic Party lawmaker, as economic deputy mayor. Kwon, who belonged to what was then the opposition Future United Party — a PPP predecessor — hoped the appointment would help secure support from the Democratic Party-controlled central government and National Assembly. Hong delivered a significant result: winning Daegu's bid to host the National Robot Test Field project, which was projected to create 11,799 jobs and generate 4.1 trillion won (about $2.7 billion) in revenue by 2030.

Oh himself is not without experience in shared governance, even short of a full coalition. After winning the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election through a candidacy unification deal with Ahn Cheol-soo, then leader of the People's Party, Oh appointed Kim Do-sik — chief of staff to Ahn and considered his closest confidant — as Seoul's deputy mayor for political affairs. The appointment allowed the two candidates' policy ideas to be shared and integrated into the city's agenda.

Whether the Democratic Party would accept a coalition offer from Oh in today's far more polarized political climate is an open question, however. "The political landscape has changed a great deal since the Nam Gyeong-pil era," said Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University. "A Democratic Party figure who accepts the deputy mayor post risks being branded a traitor — so it will not be easy to pull off."


cook@heraldcorp.com