Han wins Busan Buk-gu A seat on pledge to rebuild conservatism

Clash with Jang Dong-hyeok, who expelled him, now unavoidable

Analysts say Jang may try to hold on through Seoul mayor win, by-election results

Han Dong-hoon, the independent winner of the Busan Buk-gu A by-election, clasps hands with supporters at his campaign office in Buk-gu, Busan, on Thursday after his victory was confirmed. [Yonhap]
Han Dong-hoon, the independent winner of the Busan Buk-gu A by-election, clasps hands with supporters at his campaign office in Buk-gu, Busan, on Thursday after his victory was confirmed. [Yonhap]

Han Dong-hoon, who won a National Assembly seat through the June 3 Busan Buk-gu A by-election as an independent, has emerged as the single biggest wild card in the reshaping of South Korea's conservative camp.

Having campaigned relentlessly on a platform of "rebuilding conservatism," Han is now on a collision course with People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok — the man who expelled him from the party. Analysts say the confrontation will significantly reshape the race to lead the PPP.

Han won the Busan Buk-gu A by-election with 42.96 percent of the vote, defeating Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo, according to the National Election Commission on Thursday. In his victory remarks, Han said he was grateful that voters had "opened the path to Buk-gu's future and the rebuilding of conservatism through this historic victory."

The seat carries added symbolic weight: it was the home constituency of Jeon Jae-soo, the Democratic Party's newly elected Busan mayor. The opposition reclaimed the only Busan seat it lost to the ruling party in the last general election, and analysts expect that outcome to further strengthen Han's standing within the conservative bloc.

Han's entry into the Assembly has made the PPP leadership's political calculus considerably more complicated. Jang managed to hold Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province — the heartland of conservatism — as well as South Gyeongsang Province and Seoul in local elections where the party had been widely expected to struggle. But the PPP lost eight incumbent regional government heads to the Democratic Party, making it difficult for Jang to escape blame for the overall election outcome. The near-total defeat of PPP candidate Park Min-sik, who had clashed with Han over the constituency, is expected to intensify pressure on Jang to step down.

Pro-Han lawmakers inside the party are also expected to grow louder now that Han has secured a seat in the Assembly. Figures aligned with Han — including lawmakers Bae Hyun-jin, Park Jeong-hun, Woo Jae-jun and Han Ji-a — are expected to rally around him and escalate calls for Jang's resignation.

The selection of a successor to floor leader Song Eon-seog, whose term expires June 15, adds another layer of uncertainty. Rep. Jeong Jeom-sik is currently the frontrunner for the post. If a majority of lawmakers back him, Han's reinstatement to the party is expected to become the first order of business.

Reinstatement would also open the door for Han to run in the next party leadership election. If Jang steps down ahead of his original term ending next August and the PPP holds a leadership convention around August this year, Han could either enter the race himself or throw his support behind a pro-Han candidate — giving him significant leverage over the party's direction, analysts say.

From a factional standpoint, competition for the next party leader post — which would carry nomination authority over the 2028 general election — is expected to be fiercer than at any previous point, observers note.

The moves of Rep. Yoo Eui-dong, who won the Pyeongtaek B by-election, are also being watched as a variable. As Han and his allies work to expand their foothold in the party, analysts say the trajectory of Yoo — who is aligned with the pro-Yoo Seung-min faction — could also influence how the party's internal realignment unfolds.

Even so, analysts say Jang is likely to use the PPP's Seoul mayoral victory as a springboard to maintain his grip on the party. Some in political circles suggested Jang could put forward options such as a confidence vote among all party members or a strategic resignation followed by a renewed bid for the party leadership.


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