Resignation expected mid-June; party leadership bid in August seen as foregone conclusion

Jeong Sung-ho, Yun Ho-jung and Kim Yong-beom among names floated as successors

Economic team likely to stay on; energy ministry lineup draws close attention

Prime Minister Kim Min-seok arrives at the Government Seoul Building annex in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on Thursday to attend a plenary session of the National Council on Climate Crisis Response. [Yonhap]
Prime Minister Kim Min-seok arrives at the Government Seoul Building annex in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on Thursday to attend a plenary session of the National Council on Climate Crisis Response. [Yonhap]

Speculation over a second-term cabinet reshuffle under President Lee Jae Myung is heating up in government circles in Sejong following the June 3 local elections. Attention has turned to the possibility of a broader reshuffle — including a new prime minister — as expectations grow that Prime Minister Kim Min-seok will soon announce his resignation to run for the Democratic Party of Korea leadership at its August party convention.

Political and government sources said Sunday that officials in Sejong widely expect Kim to submit his resignation around mid-June, once the local elections and President Lee's overseas travel schedule have wrapped up. Speculation that Kim would seek the party leadership had circulated even before he took office on July 7 last year.

Jeong Sung-ho, the minister of justice, and Yun Ho-jung, the minister of interior and safety, are among those being mentioned as potential successors. Both are sitting Assembly members. Multiple officials at the prime minister's office said a specific date for Kim's resignation announcement is already making the rounds, adding that the minister of government policy coordination — a cabinet-level post that supports the prime minister — and other senior aides would likely be replaced in a chain reshuffle.

Government circles are also watching for possible reshuffles at the minister and vice minister level. The government conducted performance reviews of ministers and vice ministers across all ministries in April and May, and observers say the results could feed into personnel decisions. Unlike institutional evaluations, such service reviews focus primarily on individual ministers' and vice ministers' capabilities and organizational leadership.

The prevailing view, however, is that a change to the economic team is unlikely. Exports and the stock market have hit record highs on the back of a semiconductor supercycle, and the economic growth rate outlook is improving — even as real estate and foreign exchange management remain concerns.

In government circles, the future of Koo Yun-cheol, deputy prime minister and minister of finance and economy, and Kim Yong-beom, the presidential office's policy chief, is seen as a key variable in determining whether Kim Jung-kwan, the minister of trade, industry and energy, might move to a more senior post.

"President Lee's approval rating is approaching 60 percent, and with the stock market surpassing 8,000, we are moving beyond the Korea discount into an era of Korea premium," one Sejong government official said. "With forecasts suggesting the economy could grow 3.0 percent this year if the semiconductor boom continues, replacing the economic team would not make sense." The prevailing view is that rather than an across-the-board overhaul, some officials may see promotion-track lateral moves.

Personnel changes at the Ministry of Climate, Environment and Energy are also drawing considerable attention. The ministry was established in October last year and is approaching its first summer power emergency preparedness period. Concerns have been raised that replacing key working-level officials at this stage could affect the stability of electricity supply and demand. Lee Ho-hyeon, the ministry's second vice minister, is a seasoned energy bureaucrat who has guided energy policy under Minister Kim Sung-hwan, a former Assembly member, having served as head of the gas industry division, energy policy innovation director, electricity industry policy director and head of the energy policy bureau.

By contrast, Lee Yu-jin, the presidential secretary for climate, energy and environment at Cheong Wa Dae who is being mentioned as a potential successor to Vice Minister Lee, comes from a civil society background. She began her environmental activism as a Green Korea United organizer in 1999. Minister Kim Sung-hwan is said to have courted her persistently before bringing her into the Democratic Party. "Sejong Backbrief" is a series in which Korea Herald reporters based in Sejong deliver informal background briefings on government policy announcements, the meaning between the lines, and behind-the-scenes stories from government circles.


oskymoon@heraldcorp.com