After last year's plunge to 1980s levels, shipments are forecast to grow only 1–2% annually over the next five years
Domestic cement shipments plunged to 1980s levels last year, and volumes over the next four years are expected to fall well short of the 2023 peak of 50.24 million tons, according to the Korea Cement Association.
The association presented the outlook Thursday at a cement session held during the autumn academic conference of the Korea Society of Waste and Resource Circulation at Sono Calm in Gyeongju.
According to the association, shipments fell 23.87 percent, or 11.99 million tons, to 38.25 million tons in 2025 — three years after hitting a peak in 2023 — shrinking to levels last seen more than 40 years ago, when volumes were below 40 million tons. A modest recovery is forecast, with shipments rising 1.2 percent year-on-year to 38.71 million tons this year and 2.4 percent to 39.65 million tons in 2027.
The figures were derived by averaging the projections of four data models based on leading and concurrent indicators such as building ground-breakings and civil engineering orders. The models weight construction and civil engineering orders at 35 percent, macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and interest rates at 25 percent, and population, housing and industrial indicators at 20 percent, with policy, technology and other variables making up the remaining 20 percent.
Even so, the association said the recovery would not be enough to ease the accumulated financial strain on the country's six cement makers. Particularly pressing is the massive capital expenditure needed to comply with a range of environmental regulations, including greenhouse gas reduction requirements. The industry warned that deteriorating cumulative cash flows from sluggish sales could make it difficult to invest in those upgrades on time.
Shipments are projected to reach 39.68 million tons in 2028, 40.99 million tons in 2029 and 41.90 million tons in 2030 — a gradual recovery in the 1–2 percent range.
"This sluggish demand recovery is widening the gap between cash-generating capacity and investment needs," an association official said. "We have no choice but to hope for a construction-sector rebound and policy support."
The association developed a statistical forecasting method that reflects the demand characteristics of cement to produce these projections. The data inputs are distributed across construction and civil engineering orders (35 percent), macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and interest rates (25 percent), population, housing and industrial indicators (20 percent), and policy, technology and other variables (20 percent).
freiheit@heraldcorp.com
