CSIS seminar: 'Zelensky likely unaware of South Korea's complex situation'; experts urge quiet resolution

Two North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine and recently repatriated to South Korea are seen in this photo. [Reuters]
Two North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine and recently repatriated to South Korea are seen in this photo. [Reuters]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's public disclosure of the transfer of two captured North Korean soldiers to South Korea has complicated the Lee Jae Myung government's diplomatic strategies toward both North Korea and Russia, American experts said.

Zelensky announced at the UN General Assembly on Sept. 23 that Ukraine had recently repatriated two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea. President Lee Jae Myung responded by demanding a public apology, accusing Zelensky of violating a bilateral agreement to keep the transfer confidential, heightening diplomatic tensions between Seoul and Kyiv.

Sidney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former deputy national intelligence officer for North Korea, said at a CSIS seminar Thursday (local time) that Lee "does not want to provoke North Korea at a time when he is trying to remove every potential obstacle that could block the resumption of dialogue with Pyongyang."

Seiler added that Lee "also does not want to provoke Russia" and hopes "at some point to normalize or restore relations with Russia to previous levels," saying Zelensky's disclosure had "to some degree undermined that approach."

Emma Chanlett-Avery, director of political and security affairs at the Asia Society, said Lee is "well aware of the humiliation Kim Jong-un must have felt," particularly because "these are soldiers, not ordinary defectors." She described the issue as "especially sensitive because they are part of a heroic narrative" for North Korea.

Chanlett-Avery said the disclosure "became an enormously high-profile issue, literally announced to the entire world on the very prominent stage of the UN General Assembly," adding that this is precisely why Lee "reacted so strongly."

Victor Cha, CSIS Korea Chair, said "part of the reason South Korea was so angry about this is that South Korea also has a strategy toward Russia." He noted that Seoul "has been indirectly supplying materials to Ukraine" while "at the same time keeping open the possibility of one day resuming business in Russia and reopening factories in St. Petersburg."

Cha said South Korea "needs to reduce its risk exposure on oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz," adding that even if the strait reopens, Seoul "needs to find alternative sources — and if that means going through Central Asia and the Black Sea, it needs to maintain a good, or at least decent, relationship with Russia."

Cha said it was "most likely" that Zelensky was unaware of the Lee government's complex situation, and that from Zelensky's perspective the disclosure served as "a kind of psychological operation targeting North Korea" — a way to "make North Korea pay some price for helping Russia and to rally allies to his side."

The experts called on both sides to reach a swift and quiet resolution.

Seiler warned that "the longer this drags on, the more pressure North Korea may feel to respond in some way," adding that if the matter is not resolved within the next few days, "the likelihood increases that North Korea will say something — and that would be yet another domestic political setback for President Lee."

Cha said South Korea "still wants to provide support to Ukraine, but this incident has made the overall situation very complicated," cautioning that "publicly fighting through the media is not a good sign — it probably means that behind-the-scenes negotiations are not taking place."

Chanlett-Avery said North Korea's troop deployments and reports of wounded Russian soldiers recuperating in North Korea suggest the two countries' relationship "has evolved beyond a transactional one into something resembling a kind of communist brotherhood," and that "this relationship gives both countries a certain degree of negotiating leverage vis-à-vis China."

She said the relationship "will continue even after the war in Ukraine ends," and that it "will make it very difficult for South Korea — particularly under a progressive government — to restore ties with Russia," adding that she sees "the bloc structure between nations becoming increasingly entrenched."


mokiya@heraldcorp.com