'$37 for one plate?' How climate change is turning squid into a luxury — and could wipe it out entirely

A composite image of sliced raw squid. [Image generated with ChatGPT]

"There was a time you could get three for 10,000 won ... "

Squid was once the quintessential affordable bar snack in South Korea. But somewhere along the way it transformed into what many now call "gold squid" — a delicacy that gives diners pause before ordering.

Nowhere is the price shock more striking than with live-cut raw squid, served fresh at the table.

Just over a decade ago, street vendors sold three squid for 10,000 won. Today, a single squid commands an asking price of 40,000 to 50,000 won ($37) — firmly in premium sashimi territory.

A temporary rebound in catches last year was not enough to reverse the trend.

Worse, researchers warn that within 10 to 20 years, squid may disappear from Korean waters altogether. New projections suggest that by the 2040s, climate change could drive squid out of the seas surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

The culprit is a changing ocean ecosystem. Warming waters are making Korean seas increasingly inhospitable to squid — and at the same time, predators that feed on them are moving in.

Dried squid strips on display at the seafood section of Hanaro Mart's Yangjae branch in Seocho-gu, Seoul. [Lim Se-jun]

According to climate and environmental researchers, a joint team from Pukyong National University and the National Institute of Fisheries Science recently published findings in the international journal Communications Earth & Environment, analyzing the collapse risk facing the Pacific flying squid fishery in the East Sea based on 33 years of environmental data spanning 1993 to 2025.

The results were stark. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the East Sea squid fishery faces effective collapse in the 2040s. Under a scenario of continued fossil fuel use, the model projects catches reaching zero by 2043 — just 17 years from now.

Shoppers browse the seafood section of a hypermarket in Seoul. [Yonhap]

Even aggressive emissions cuts offer little comfort. Under a scenario of significantly reduced greenhouse gas output, the model still projects catches falling to zero around 2048.

The decline is already well underway. Pacific flying squid catches in the East Sea have fallen roughly 85 percent in the 2020s compared with the 1990s average — meaning that where fishermen once hauled in 100 squid, they now bring in about 15. The total catch has shrunk to roughly one-sixth of its former scale.

Squid drying on racks along the coastal road in Jongdal-ri, Gujwa-eup, Jeju. [Yonhap]

For coastal fishing communities, this is no longer a distant warning — it is lived reality. Squid was once the signature catch and a primary source of income along the East Sea coast. As catches have plummeted, squid has become synonymous with expensive seafood for consumers as well.

Overfishing and climate change are the explanations most commonly cited for the decline. But what this study highlights is something more fundamental: the ocean itself is changing.

The researchers found that the collapse cannot be attributed to rising water temperatures alone. Their analysis identified three interlocking pathways driving the decline: long-term ocean warming, marine heat waves and the influx of predators.

The first pathway is gradual warming. Pacific flying squid — the species Koreans most commonly eat — is highly sensitive to water temperature. The research team identified its preferred temperature range as roughly 13 to 23 degrees Celsius.

East Sea temperatures are rising at an accelerating pace. As the water warms, the habitat suitable for squid is shifting northward, making them harder to catch in traditional fishing grounds. The same dynamic is pushing their range toward the colder waters near Russia.

The second threat is marine heat waves — episodes in which sea surface temperatures in a given area remain abnormally high for an extended period. Marine life is acutely vulnerable to these sudden spikes in heat.

The research team found that during marine heat wave events, the average September sea surface temperature in key East Sea zones climbed to 24.4 degrees Celsius — beyond the upper limit of the Pacific flying squid's preferred range.

A third threat has also emerged: the yellowtail amberjack, a predatory fish whose catches have surged alongside rising sea temperatures.

Noryangjin Fish Market in Dongjak-gu, Seoul. [Yonhap]

The yellowtail amberjack has become one of South Korea's most popular winter sashimi fish in recent years. For squid, however, it is an unwelcome neighbor — a predatory species that feeds on other fish and squid alike.

Yellowtail amberjack thrive in warmer water, preferring temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius. As the East Sea warms, their range is expanding — the very conditions making life harder for squid are creating an ideal environment for their predator.

The research team confirmed a strong inverse correlation between the two species' catch volumes: as yellowtail amberjack catches rise, squid catches fall.

Yellowtail amberjack sashimi. [Provided by reader]

The researchers stopped short of concluding that predation by yellowtail amberjack directly causes the squid decline, noting that catch data alone cannot establish that link. They described the influx of predators alongside rising temperatures as one of several ecological pathways contributing to the risk of fishery collapse.

There is, however, a seemingly contradictory data point. Last year's squid catch was widely reported to have increased, raising hopes of a price drop.

According to fisheries production data from the Ministry of Statistics, domestic coastal Pacific flying squid output last year totaled 31,006 tons, up from 13,568 tons in 2024 — a 128.5 percent increase in a single year, more than doubling output.

Shoppers at a traditional market in Seoul. [Yonhap]

Does this mean squid is making a comeback? A closer look at why catches rose suggests caution. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries attributed last year's production increase primarily to relatively lower sea temperatures.

A temporary dip in water temperatures compared with the previous year allowed squid fishing grounds to form smoothly — in the central East Sea during spring and in the central and southern Yellow Sea during summer.

Crucially, 2024 was the year squid production hit a record low. Because the baseline was exceptionally poor, last year's sharp rebound alone is not sufficient to signal a long-term recovery. For context, domestic coastal Pacific flying squid output in 2021 reached 60,880 tons.

Live squid caught by a jigging vessel are transferred to a live-fish truck at Jumunjin Port in Gangneung, Gangwon Province. [Yonhap]

The changing ocean is not a problem confined to squid. According to the National Institute of Fisheries Science's 2026 Climate Change Impact Briefing Book for the Ocean and Fisheries Sector, published this year, surface water temperatures in the seas surrounding South Korea rose by approximately 1.60 degrees Celsius over the 58 years from 1968 to 2025.

Over the same period, the global average sea surface temperature rose by 0.76 degrees Celsius — meaning Korean waters are warming more than twice as fast as the world average.

The rapidly shifting marine environment threatens far more than a single species. As the habitats of established fish species change and warm-water predators move in, the effects ripple across the entire marine ecosystem.

"These findings show that when displacement of species from their habitat due to high water temperatures coincides with an influx of active predators, fishery collapse can accelerate sharply," the research team said. "The East Sea case serves as a warning that without proactive climate-adaptive management, other major marine ecosystems around the world will face similar declines in fishery resources."

woo@heraldcorp.com