Zigbang analysis of 2026 subscription market
First-priority average falls to 5.6-to-1
Supply up 34%, applications down 26.6%
The national apartment subscription market this year has seen supply rise sharply while applications plunged, cutting the average competition rate roughly in half. Analysts say the polarization is deepening, with subscription demand concentrating in areas offering clear price and location advantages — prime Seoul districts, complexes subject to the price ceiling on new apartments, and public pre-sales in third-generation new towns — amid the burden of high pre-sale prices and tightening loan regulations.
Real estate platform Zigbang analyzed nationwide apartment subscription results for the period from Jan. 1 to Sept. 18, based on resident recruitment announcements, and found the first-priority average subscription competition rate stood at 5.6-to-1, down sharply from 10.2-to-1 during the same period last year.
General supply this year reached 85,321 units, up 34.0 percent from 63,668 units in the same period a year earlier, but first-priority applications totaled only 475,009, a 26.6 percent drop from 646,891 last year. The combination of increased supply and fewer applicants dragged down the overall competition rate.
By supply type, the gap between public and private pre-sales was stark. Public pre-sales drew 127,842 applications for 6,735 units across 20 complexes, posting a first-priority average of 19.0-to-1. While that was down from 38.1-to-1 last year, it was still about 4.3 times higher than the private pre-sale rate of 4.4-to-1.
Housing subscription accounts flowed heavily into third-generation new towns and major public housing sites in the greater Seoul area. Namyangju Wangsuk District 2 Block A3 recorded the highest competition rate among public pre-sales at 126.8-to-1, followed by Wangsuk Atera (A1) at 105.5-to-1, Hwaseong Dongtan 2 District Block C27 at 100.6-to-1, Magok M-Valley 17 Complex at 96.0-to-1, Goyang Changneung S4 at 63.0-to-1, and Goyang Changneung Woomi Lin Granity at 61.2-to-1.
Private pre-sales, meanwhile, drew 347,167 applications for 78,586 units across 191 complexes, averaging 4.4-to-1 in the first priority. Supply rose 35.5 percent from a year earlier, but applications fell 19.4 percent, leaving the segment struggling.
Whether a complex was subject to the price ceiling on new apartments — which keeps pre-sale prices below market rates — also proved decisive. Complexes under the ceiling averaged 10.8-to-1 in the first priority, about 2.9 times higher than the 3.7-to-1 recorded by those without it. However, the gap narrowed from last year's 5.8-fold difference, depending on when major complexes in the Gangnam area came to market.
By region, Seoul continued to dominate. The capital posted the highest first-priority average in the country at 63.1-to-1. Seoul accounted for just 2.8 percent of national general supply, yet drew 151,473 first-priority applications — 31.9 percent of all applications nationwide. All 22 pre-sale complexes in Seoul exceeded their supply in the first priority.
At the complex level, Acro Seocho in Seocho-gu drew 32,973 applications for just 30 general-supply units, posting a competition rate of 1,099.1-to-1 — the highest in the country this year. It was followed by Otiere Banpo at 710.2-to-1, Ichon Le El at 135.0-to-1, Dongjak Central Dongmun D-East at 114.8-to-1, and Magok M-Valley 17 Complex at 96.0-to-1. The top three complexes were all price-ceiling-regulated developments in prime Gangnam and Yongsan locations.
Gyeonggi Province's first-priority average fell to 5.3-to-1, roughly half of last year's 11.4-to-1, with a wide gap between public pre-sales (21.1-to-1) and private pre-sales (1.6-to-1). Incheon bucked the trend, rising to 6.4-to-1 — about double last year's 3.2-to-1 — as demand concentrated around Songdo and Geomdan new town.
Regional markets outside the capital area remained depressed. Beomoeyeok Park Dream D'Arc in Suseong-gu, Daegu was the only complex to post a three-digit competition rate outside the greater Seoul area, at 101.5-to-1. Many provincial cities and provinces — including Jeju (0.2-to-1), Gangwon Province (0.5-to-1), Busan (0.6-to-1) and Ulsan (0.8-to-1) — averaged below 1-to-1, meaning demand fell short of supply.
"Supply will continue to flow as the autumn pre-sale season gets underway, but the trend of selective demand — strictly divided by location, pre-sale price competitiveness, and the safety margin relative to surrounding market prices — will persist," said Kim Eun-seon, head of Zigbang's big data lab.
hwshin@heraldcorp.com
