About 400 of 1,277 licensed schools expected to shut down by 2050

Struggling schools turn to elderly drivers, foreign nationals for survival

Vehicles travel through central Tokyo. [Getty Images]
Vehicles travel through central Tokyo. [Getty Images]

Driving schools across Japan are closing at an accelerating pace as a declining birthrate and a growing reluctance among young people to get behind the wheel reshape the industry. Schools are now looking to elderly drivers and foreign nationals to stay afloat.

The number of young people seeking driver's licenses has dropped sharply, driven by a shrinking youth population and a preference for public transit in urban areas, according to the Nikkei newspaper.

One example illustrates the access problem: a 23-year-old man working for a cleaning company in Tokyo's Meguro-gu has enough savings to buy a car but has given up on getting a license. The driving school a 10-minute walk from his home shut down in 2023 and is set to be converted into a paid nursing facility, while a nearby school stopped accepting new students ahead of its own closure.

Statistics from Japan's National Police Agency show the number of licensed drivers aged 24 and under fell by about 367,000, or 6.7 percent, between the end of 2021 and the end of 2025. Among those 19 and younger, the drop was steeper — about 88,000 license holders, a decline of 12.3 percent — underscoring how sharply young people are turning away from driving.

Experts project that the number of driving school graduates, which stood at about 1.03 million in 2025, will fall below 1 million by 2030 and shrink further to about 680,000 by 2050, as a smaller 18-year-old population and industry consolidation take hold. That trajectory is expected to wipe out roughly 400 of Japan's 1,277 licensed driving schools — about one in three — by 2050.

People walk past test-drive vehicles outside a Tokyo automaker showroom in 2014. [Reuters]
People walk past test-drive vehicles outside a Tokyo automaker showroom in 2014. [Reuters]

To counter the decline, driving schools are expanding license-renewal courses for elderly drivers and investing in training programs for foreign nationals to help address labor shortages in the logistics sector. Some schools have introduced short, intensive courses paired with dedicated accommodation for foreign students, while others have rolled out online booking and vehicle dispatch systems to attract more students and improve efficiency.

Smaller schools in rural areas with limited financial resources, however, are expected to either shut down or be absorbed through mergers and acquisitions as the industry consolidates around larger operators.


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