Pre-sales concentrated in Greater Seoul, Chungcheong region
Seoul limited to about 2,000 units, led by Banpo DH Classit
About 49,000 apartments are set to go on pre-sale across the Greater Seoul area and the Chungcheong region after the Chuseok holiday, marking what is expected to be a bumper autumn pre-sale season. Yet only 2,000 units will be supplied in Seoul itself, and even those carry steep barriers to entry — requiring large amounts of cash — meaning the capital's supply shortage is expected to persist.
About 48,000 units to open for general pre-sale from late September
According to real estate research firm RealToday, a total of 65,589 homes are scheduled for supply across 16 cities and provinces nationwide from Monday through November. Of those, 48,829 units will be available for general pre-sale.
By region, supply is concentrated in the Greater Seoul area and the Chungcheong region. Gyeonggi Province accounts for 35.3 percent of the total, with 17,219 units planned — 13,854 of them slated for October alone. In Pyeongtaek, Hillstate Godeok Ellist will offer 2,122 units, while Acmere Dongtan in Hwaseong's Dongtan district will supply 1,808 units.
Incheon will see 5,713 units, or 11.7 percent of the total, with large complexes including the 1,289-unit Sangok Station Xi Hillstate & Hanulchae in Bupyeong-gu and the 1,110-unit Gyeyang New Town Kaive Ubora in Gyeyang-gu.
Outside the capital region, South Chungcheong Province is set to receive 5,113 units, North Chungcheong Province 3,667 units, and Sejong 1,356 units. Notable projects include a 1,380-unit offering at Cheonsan Asan Station Grand City Philhaus Block 1 in Baebang-eup, Asan, and 1,671 units at Cheongju Gagyeong iPark Buildings 7 and 8 in Cheongju.
Seoul limited to Banpo DH Classit — and buyers need 2 billion won in cash
Despite the large volume of pre-sales nationally, analysts say Seoul will still face a supply crunch, as the number of units available there remains extremely limited. A total of 6,999 homes are set to be supplied in Seoul after the Chuseok holiday, but the vast majority belong to redevelopment projects, and once units reserved for existing members are excluded, only 2,398 units will be open for general pre-sale.
Most of those are redevelopment units in Seocho-gu. The most prominent project is Banpo DH Classit, a reconstruction of Banpo Jugong Apartment Complex 1, sections 1, 2 and 4, in the Banpo-dong area, which will offer a total of 1,832 units for general pre-sale.
The full complex will comprise 5,002 units and sits in a transit-oriented area near Gubanpo Station on Seoul Metro Line 9, with Dongjak Station — a transfer point for lines 4 and 9 — also within walking distance. The development is close to top-tier schools including Banpo Elementary and Middle schools and Sehwa High School, as well as key Gangnam amenities such as a Shinsegae department store.
Nearby licensed real estate agents estimate the pre-sale price at around 95 million won ($69,900) per 3.3 square meters. Based on an 84-square-meter unit, that works out to roughly 3 billion to 3.3 billion won. By comparison, an 84-square-meter unit at Acro River Park — a newly built apartment along the nearby Han River — sold for 5 billion won on Sept. 10, while an equivalent unit at Raemian One Bailey changed hands for 5.63 billion won last June, meaning the gap between those actual transaction prices and the Banpo DH Classit pre-sale estimate exceeds 2 billion won.
That gap has earned Banpo DH Classit the nickname "a 2-billion-won lottery apartment," but tightened lending regulations mean buyers must hold a substantial amount of cash to see the purchase through to move-in.
For example, if an 84-square-meter unit is pre-sold at 3 billion won, the installment payments — equivalent to 60 percent of the purchase price — would come to about 1.8 billion won. While installment loans cover up to 40 percent of the total pre-sale price, or 1.2 billion won, the maximum mortgage available once those loans convert to a final balance payment is just 200 million won. That is because the government caps mortgage lending on newly built apartments at 600 million won for units priced at 1.5 billion won or below, 400 million won for units between 1.5 billion and 2.5 billion won, and 200 million won for units above 2.5 billion won.
Ultimately, buyers would need close to 3 billion won in cash — including proceeds from selling an existing home — to complete a purchase. As a result, the effective housing supply impact in Seoul is expected to be limited.
"With Banpo DH Classit, buyers need to carefully calculate exactly how much cash is required at each of the three payment stages — the down payment, the installment payments and the final balance," a nearby real estate agent said. "The pre-sale price may look low because of the price ceiling on new apartments, but the cash burden that comes with it is still enormous."
hss@heraldcorp.com
