Western intelligence detects administrative preparations ready to execute on decision

Russia seen expanding contract recruitment, forced enlistment instead of public call-up

Europe alarmed over buildup aimed beyond Ukraine at NATO

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Russian Security Council in Moscow. [AFP]
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Russian Security Council in Moscow. [AFP]

Western intelligence agencies are monitoring signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch a so-called "stealth mobilization" after this weekend's general election — quietly expanding troop numbers without any public announcement — the British daily The Telegraph reported.

Figures of up to 300,000 additional troops have been cited. Analysts say Russia, having witnessed a mass exodus of citizens during its 2022 mobilization, may this time rely on expanded contract recruitment and digital conscription systems to replenish its forces with minimal public notice.

An intelligence source told The Telegraph on Friday that "administrative preparatory work is being seen that would allow implementation as soon as a decision is made."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously cited Ukrainian intelligence assessments that Russia plans to mobilize up to 300,000 troops. Putin, however, has repeatedly dismissed talk of a post-election mobilization as "nonsense."

Western officials have expressed doubt that Russia has the equipment to field 300,000 new troops on the battlefield, saying a large-scale public mobilization order appears unlikely.

One intelligence source said there are "many things being observed that could be described as a 'stealth' mobilization — additional efforts to accelerate contract recruitment," adding that the plans include forcibly enlisting people awaiting trial, those in debt arrears and students who have dropped out of university.

Bloomberg also reported, citing related documents, that as mobilization speculation grows among Kremlin and military registration officials, some are opening foreign bank accounts to move assets abroad and advising relatives to remain outside the country.

A European security official told Bloomberg that Russia aims to mobilize 300,000 troops by year's end but may do so without an official announcement, unlike the September 2022 call-up. Because that mobilization triggered public unrest and a wave of departures, the Kremlin has since built digital infrastructure to quietly summon recruits and has moved to block potential escape routes, the official said.

Russia is holding a three-day general election through Sunday to choose members of the State Duma — its lower house of parliament — for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine. Putin's United Russia party is expected to retain the parliamentary majority it has held since 2003.

Russia has said it has deployed 700,000 troops in the war in Ukraine and needs to replenish roughly 400,000 each year to sustain that level. While it has relied on generous salaries and large bonuses to recruit new soldiers, volunteer numbers are said to be dwindling as the war drags on.

Europe's alarm over signs of Russian escalation is growing. European defense and security officials view Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a "precursor" to organized action against NATO, and warn that if Putin does order a mobilization, it could signal ambitions beyond Ukraine and toward Europe itself — including fears that Russia could establish new bases and deploy forces along its border with NATO.


th5@heraldcorp.com