Cho to meet Secretary of State Rubio on Friday; talks to cover investment, troop deployment and nuclear submarine issues

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun (left) and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio [Yonhap]
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun (left) and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio [Yonhap]

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will visit Washington on Friday for bilateral talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with attention focused on how far the two sides can advance discussions on South Korea's investment commitments to the United States — a process closely tied to the country's contribution to stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Wednesday that Cho will be in Washington from Thursday through Saturday, with the ministerial meeting scheduled for Friday. It will be the first bilateral talks between Cho and Rubio in roughly seven months, since their last meeting in February.

The ministry said the two ministers plan to "hold consultations on a wide range of topics, including the South Korea-US relationship, Korean Peninsula issues, and regional and global matters."

The talks are expected to involve substantive discussions on South Korea's investment plans in the United States, the possible deployment of troops to the Strait of Hormuz, and other ways Seoul might contribute to stability in the waterway.

Investment is expected to take center stage. In the joint fact sheet from the South Korea-US summit, South Korea's investment commitments to the US are listed ahead of Seoul's pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and uranium enrichment and reprocessing rights — a sequencing that signals investment must move first. The announcement of South Korea's first major US investment project is widely expected around the time of Friday's meeting.

Some observers suggest Cho's visit may be aimed in part at clinching a final agreement on the investment package. The logic is that smooth progress on investment could accelerate parallel security discussions, including those on nuclear submarines and uranium enrichment and reprocessing.

Separately, the government is understood to have decided to exclude the question of a Hormuz troop deployment from the agenda of the National Security Council standing committee meeting set for Thursday — the day before the ministerial talks. The move reflects both the difficulty of deciding such a significant diplomatic and security matter without the foreign minister present, and a desire to first see the outcome of the highest-level bilateral talks. Cheong Wa Dae said it "cannot confirm specifics regarding NSC-related matters."

The deployment question is directly linked to other alliance issues, including the transfer of wartime operational control and a potential reduction in joint military exercises. Opposition to deployment has emerged even within the ruling camp, meaning the government needs more time to build domestic political support and sway public opinion. Officials have also floated the possibility of what they call "technical support" — a term covering equipment assistance and other non-troop contributions — as an alternative or complement to a troop deployment. Cho recently spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at Tehran's request, conveying the government's position that no decision has yet been made on a Hormuz deployment.

Public opinion is not squarely behind the idea, either. Some polling has found that more than half of South Koreans oppose sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz.

What complicates matters is the intensity of US pressure. Donald Trump recently took to his Truth Social account to warn that countries that have given the United States "no help" in keeping oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz "will be, and must be, forced to pay" once "this ridiculous war" is over — a pointed message directed at US allies.

The government is expected to weigh several factors: whether any form of deployment or support would satisfy Washington's demands, whether it can be framed as advancing the national interest through contributing to peace and stability in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether it would be enough to overcome domestic opposition. Ultimately, a decision will require a call from the commander in chief, and some observers say President Lee Jae Myung could use his press conference scheduled for Friday to spell out a concrete plan for South Korea's contribution to Hormuz stability.

The talks will also touch on North Korea. With Donald Trump having signaled of late a strong desire to restart North Korea-US dialogue, Cho is expected to express Seoul's support for that effort and push for South Korea to play a meaningful role in the US approach to Pyongyang. Given how closely the issues are intertwined, some analysts see a possible linkage between Seoul's offer to serve as a peacemaker in North Korea-US talks and its contribution to the Hormuz effort.


youknow@heraldcorp.com
sang@heraldcorp.com