Non-degree youth unemployment hits 20-year low

College graduates face worst job market since pandemic, financial crisis

Retiring tradespeople, fewer immigrants drive skilled-labor shortage

'Broaden your geographic and industry options,' economist advises graduates

A student in a graduation cap at a university commencement ceremony. [Getty Images]
A student in a graduation cap at a university commencement ceremony. [Getty Images]

An unusual reversal is playing out in the US youth job market: young workers without college degrees are enjoying their best employment conditions in decades, while college graduates are facing their toughest job market since the pandemic and the financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday (local time).

According to the Burning Glass Institute, a labor market think tank, the unemployment rate among workers aged 22 to 34 without a college degree has hit its lowest level in 20 years.

While non-degree young workers are in historically strong shape, college graduates are experiencing a comparatively sharp deterioration in employment prospects. Those with advanced degrees — master's or doctoral — and graduates who majored in science or technology are faring particularly worse than usual.

"For most of the past 20 years, the employment trends for college graduates and non-graduates moved in roughly the same direction, whether the economy was good or bad," said Gad Levanon, chief economist at Burning Glass. "Recently, the gap between the two groups has been widening noticeably."

The divergence in employment outcomes between degree holders and non-degree holders stems from a mismatch between supply and demand.

Skilled trades such as construction and manufacturing are facing deepening labor shortages as older workers retire in greater numbers and immigration declines, while the number of college graduates in the US has reached an all-time high — and AI is increasingly taking over the entry-level tasks that companies have traditionally assigned to new graduates.

Levanon said "the number of people with a bachelor's degree keeps growing, while those without a college degree are shrinking rapidly," adding that he does not see the trend as temporary.

In this regard, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report released Sept. 4 showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August from the previous month, with food services and drinking establishments accounting for 59,000 of those gains — more than a third of the total increase.

In terms of absolute employability, however, college graduates still hold an advantage. Among prime-age workers between 25 and 54, the 12-month average unemployment rate for college graduates through July stood at 2.7 percent. By comparison, workers with some college but no degree posted a 3.6 percent unemployment rate, while high school graduates came in at 4.7 percent.

Experts say it remains uncertain how many more entry-level professional jobs AI will eliminate, and whether robotics and automation will eventually affect employment in manufacturing and service industries as well.

Levanon advised recent graduates to "broaden their options in terms of location, occupation and employer. Landing a job at a top-tier company can be very difficult, but if you're willing to make some compromises, finding work becomes much easier."


yckim6452@heraldcorp.com