In a plea on YouTube channel Choi Wook's Maebulshow

'If things stay this way, home prices will keep rising — the Democratic Party is being too complacent'

Lee Kwang-soo, head of Gwangsune Bokdeokbang. (Newsis)
Lee Kwang-soo, head of Gwangsune Bokdeokbang. (Newsis)

Lee Kwang-soo, head of the real estate analysis channel Gwangsune Bokdeokbang, is a prominent voice among those forecasting falling home prices. He has vowed to stop discussing real estate, citing frustration over the possibility that the Democratic Party of Korea could soften its planned overhaul of the property tax system.

Appearing on the YouTube channel Choi Wook's Maebulshow, a financial and current-affairs talk show, on Monday, Lee said, "The stance of the Democratic Party and the government is extremely complacent." He added, "If things continue this way, home prices will keep rising, the market will grow chaotic, and that will come back to haunt the administration."

"Their idea of a solution is just to say they'll increase housing supply in the long term," he continued, criticizing the approach as akin to "talking about farming rice paddies when a war has just broken out."

Lee cited Bank of Korea data showing the broad money supply, or M2, on a steady upward trend. He said the growing money supply is the "gravitational force" pulling real estate prices ever higher. "As the money supply increases, the price of money falls and the price of goods inevitably rises," he said.

Lee rebuffed President Lee Jae Myung's Aug. 30 post on X, formerly Twitter, in which the president suggested high interest rates next year would cause housing prices to crash. "Even if interest rates rise, inflation rises even more, so the real interest rate is negative," he said. "A rate hike has no real effect and only pushes people to take out loans and buy a house right now."

Lee also presented a graph tracking apartment move-in volumes in the Greater Seoul area. He said, "Apartment move-ins in the metropolitan area keep falling, and as jeonse — a lump-sum, long-term deposit lease — and monthly rent prices come under pressure, demand for buying homes with loans is rising." He said this trend would continue until 2028, warning that "if nothing is done, the market will simply be left exposed to it."

When host Choi Wook asked what alternative he would propose, Lee said, "This is too hard for me. It makes me sick just to talk about real estate. So I've decided not to talk about it until the Democratic Party's direction becomes clear. It's painful to keep bringing this up. I'll just quietly talk about semiconductor share prices instead — that's more fun."

During the live broadcast, some viewers sent super chats, or paid donations, urging Lee to stay strong.

But the channel was also flooded with critical comments, including "He's backing off now that approval ratings are dropping," "He's changing his tune now," "I wish he'd speak with more responsibility," and "Now he's blaming the Democratic Party?"

Lee previously drew attention in July, when President Lee Jae Myung, presiding over a "grand debate on real estate," called on him directly to speak. "I watch Mr. Lee Kwang-soo's videos a lot — please share your critique," he said.

At the time, Lee said, "Capital gains tax exemptions for single-home owners should be limited to once in a lifetime. Some people move constantly and keep receiving tax exemptions — from the moment someone first buys a home, they should be made to consider whether they will live there for a long time and make a rational choice." President Lee called the idea "novel" and "a very sensible point."

In an Aug. 30 post on X, President Lee Jae Myung raised several points and forecasts related to real estate. These included plans for a rapid expansion of housing supply and an expected Bank of Korea benchmark interest rate of 3.5 percent in the first quarter of next year. He also pointed to a rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure listings. He said the government has instructed relevant authorities to prepare a system to buy up large volumes of housing priced below a certain threshold for use as public housing. The plan is meant to prepare for a scenario in which home prices plunge due to a rapid, large-scale increase in supply and curbs on speculative demand. It would also address a surge in loan delinquencies and foreclosures caused by high interest rates, raising the possibility that housing prices could crash next year.

The following month, former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seong-min wrote on Facebook criticizing President Lee's remarks as "not science but something like sorcery." He added that Lee "seems to have watched too many strange YouTube videos that have been deceiving the public by endlessly shouting that housing prices will crash."


jshan@heraldcorp.com