Simulation by KB Kookmin Bank for Rep. Shin Dong-wook's office excludes Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong-gu; taxable complexes projected to rise from 78 this year to 101 by 2030
If home prices in Seoul continue to climb, residents of all but three of the city's 25 districts could be subject to the comprehensive real estate tax — known as jongbuse — by 2030, based on a standard 112-square-meter apartment, according to a new analysis. The number of districts with at least one taxable complex among the top five by market price is currently 19, but is projected to reach 22 — covering all districts except Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong-gu — on a non-owner-occupant basis, assuming the government's planned tax reform goes through.
The findings come from a simulation model submitted by KB Kookmin Bank to the office of People Power Party lawmaker Shin Dong-wook, a member of the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee, released Sunday. The analysis covered 125 complexes — the top five by KB market price in each of Seoul's 25 districts — focusing on 112-square-meter units. Of those, 78 complexes across 19 districts are projected to be subject to the tax this year. The scenario incorporates the government's proposed and revised tax reform, applying from 2027 a basic deduction of 1.4 billion won ($1.03 million) for owner-occupants and 1.2 billion won for non-owner-occupants, a fair market value ratio of 70 percent, and a tax burden cap of 150 percent.
If Seoul apartment prices maintain the 11 percent annual increase recorded over the past year — from June 2025 to May 2026 — the number of taxable complexes on a non-owner-occupant basis is projected to grow to 101 across 22 districts by 2030.
Districts where none of the five sampled complexes currently face the tax — including Gwanak, Nowon and Jungnang-gu — would also see taxable properties emerge. That would extend the tax's reach to most of the city's districts, leaving only Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong-gu outside its scope.
Among the 47 complexes currently exempt, 23 would newly become subject to the tax: four each in Gangseo, Gwanak, Guro and Eunpyeong-gu, three in Seongbuk-gu, two in Jongno-gu, and one each in Nowon and Jungnang-gu.
The number of taxable complexes is expected to dip briefly right after the tax reform takes effect before rising again as cumulative price gains push more properties over the threshold.
On a non-owner-occupant basis, the count would fall from 78 this year to 68 in 2027, then climb to 82 in 2028, 94 in 2029 and 101 in 2030.
The total tax burden is projected to rise sharply. The aggregate comprehensive real estate tax levied across all households in the 125 sampled complexes is estimated to jump from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won by 2030 on a non-owner-occupant basis — an 8.9-fold increase.
The burden is set to grow especially fast in non-Gangnam areas. The combined tax bill for major complexes in Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon and Jungnang-gu is projected to surge from about 720,000 won this year to about 4.58 million won by 2030 on a non-owner-occupant basis — a 56.6-fold increase.
"Although the government's tax reform proposal has been partially revised, it has created significant confusion in the real estate market," Shin said. "Going forward, the comprehensive real estate tax will in effect become a 'Seoul citizen tax' — levied even on ordinary people who own just one home in the city."
mkkang@heraldcorp.com
