Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Jung Chung-rae (left), Song Young-gil and Kim Min-seok wait for the start of a televised debate at SBS Mokdong Studio in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on Wednesday. [National Assembly Press Corps]
Democratic Party of Korea leadership candidates Jung Chung-rae (left), Song Young-gil and Kim Min-seok wait for the start of a televised debate at SBS Mokdong Studio in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on Wednesday. [National Assembly Press Corps]

Candidates in the Democratic Party of Korea's Aug. 17 national convention are locked in a fierce battle ahead of the announcement of results from the Honam region and Seoul-Gyeonggi Province circuit primaries — the race's most pivotal contests. With each candidate showing strength among different voter pools — party loyalists versus the general public, and Honam versus Seoul — the campaigns are engaged in an intense numbers game to close the gaps.

A Media Tomato survey released Thursday showed Jung Chung-rae leading with 43.0 percent support for the next Democratic Party leader, followed by Kim Min-seok at 29.4 percent and Song Young-gil at 7.6 percent — a margin outside the margin of error. When the sample was narrowed to Democratic Party supporters and independents, however, Kim edged ahead with 41.0 percent against Jung's 39.6 percent and Song's 7.1 percent, a statistically tied race within the margin of error. The poll surveyed 1,033 adults aged 18 and older nationwide from Monday to Tuesday using automated random-digit dialing of mobile phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

The trend of Kim leading among Democratic Party supporters and independents also appeared in a separate poll. A Joowon C&I survey of 2,001 adults aged 18 and older conducted from Saturday to Monday found Jung leading first-choice support for the next Democratic Party leader at 33.4 percent, followed by Kim at 25.4 percent and Song at 8.4 percent. The poll used automated mobile phone dialing and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

Among the 1,142 respondents who identified as Democratic Party supporters or independents, Kim led with 36.8 percent against Jung's 34.7 percent and Song's 10.2 percent — a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error. Narrowing further to the 499 self-identified Democratic Party members, Kim pulled ahead decisively with 45.8 percent, compared with Jung's 29.7 percent and Song's 10.1 percent — a lead outside the margin of error.

The two front-runners' geographic strongholds are also sharply divided: Kim in Honam, Jung in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. In the Media Tomato poll, 44.1 percent of Democratic Party supporters and independents in the Honam region named Kim as their first choice, followed by Jung at 39.0 percent and Song at 10.2 percent. In Seoul, however, Jung led among Democratic supporters and independents with 45.9 percent, ahead of Kim's 36.3 percent and Song's 7.1 percent — a gap outside the margin of error.

The Joowon C&I poll of Democratic Party supporters and independents told a similar story. In Honam, Kim led decisively with 52.3 percent against Jung's 29.9 percent and Song's 7.1 percent — well outside the margin of error. The Seoul-Gyeonggi area was more competitive. In Seoul, Kim led with 34.7 percent to Jung's 26.6 percent and Song's 11.3 percent, while in Gyeonggi Province, Jung narrowly led with 38.0 percent against Kim's 34.0 percent within the margin of error. Song polled at 9.4 percent in the province.

The Jung camp is leaning on the concept of "urban voters over rural organization" — the idea that Kim's organizational strength among party members carries less weight in cities, where individual voters make up their own minds. A lawmaker close to Jung said the campaign sees a strong path to victory if it can build a lead of more than 10 percentage points in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province while keeping the deficit in Honam to single digits.

The Kim camp, meanwhile, argues that polls of the general public are skewed by "cross-voting" — People Power Party supporters backing Jung to weaken the Democratic Party. Because party members hold a 70 percent weight in the leadership vote alongside delegates, with a national public opinion poll accounting for the remaining 30 percent, and because the public poll includes a question designed to screen out cross-voters, the camp contends that results among Democratic supporters and independents more closely reflect the actual outcome.

Kim appeared on KBS Gwangju Radio on Thursday and said that across multiple polls, once People Power Party supporters are excluded, he leads Jung by a meaningful margin in Honam and by a considerable margin in the greater Seoul area among Democratic supporters and independents. "A poll that lumps in People Power Party supporters is not particularly meaningful, so I believe that trend will translate similarly among party members," he said.

Jung, appearing on JTBC's YouTube channel on Wednesday, pushed back. "All the polls show the gap is not that large," he said, adding that the Greater Seoul area has the largest concentration of party members yet the focus keeps falling on Honam. "Whether Jung Chung-rae wins or Kim Min-seok loses — nobody knows, not even the daughter-in-law or the mother-in-law," he said. "But hasn't Jung Chung-rae been on a steady upward trend?"


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