Ryu Ki-jung, executive director of the Korea Enterprises Federation, and Ryu Ki-seop, secretary-general of the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (right), listen to a statement by Lee Mi-seon, vice chairwoman of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, during the 13th plenary session of the Minimum Wage Commission at Government Complex Sejong on Thursday. [Yonhap]
Ryu Ki-jung, executive director of the Korea Enterprises Federation, and Ryu Ki-seop, secretary-general of the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (right), listen to a statement by Lee Mi-seon, vice chairwoman of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, during the 13th plenary session of the Minimum Wage Commission at Government Complex Sejong on Thursday. [Yonhap]

Next year's minimum wage is all but settled Tuesday.

With labor and management unable to close a 690-won gap in their hourly wage proposals, the "deliberation range" that public interest members are expected to put forward has emerged as the pivotal variable in last-minute negotiations. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement, a vote is widely seen as the likely outcome.

The Minimum Wage Commission will hold its 14th plenary session at 3 p.m. Tuesday at Government Complex Sejong to continue deliberations on next year's rate. The statutory deliberation deadline of June 29 has already passed, but given the subsequent steps required — including an objection period and the official wage announcement — a final vote at Tuesday's session is considered highly probable.

At the 13th plenary session held Thursday, labor submitted its ninth revised proposal of 11,220 won ($8) per hour, an 8.7 percent increase over this year's rate, while management countered with 10,530 won, a 2.0 percent rise. The gap between the two sides, which stood at 1,680 won when negotiations began, has narrowed to 690 won — but the two sides failed to find a final point of agreement.

Attention is now focused on the deliberation range that public interest members will propose. The procedure calls on public interest members to set an upper and lower bound to guide negotiations when labor and management can no longer narrow their differences. If the two sides reach an agreement within that range, the figure is adopted as-is; if not, the minimum wage is typically decided by a vote.

Whether employer-side members will even attend Tuesday's session is another variable. At Thursday's meeting, employer members Lee Gi-jae and Geum Ji-seon, recommended by the Korea Federation of Micro Enterprise, walked out in protest after public interest members called for additional revised proposals. Their attendance Tuesday has not yet been confirmed. Should they stay away, the chances of a labor-management agreement would diminish further, making a vote an even more likely conclusion.

In this round of negotiations, management has centered its argument on the payment capacity of small businesses, while labor has prioritized the livelihoods of low-wage workers. Management contends that a minimum wage hike would accelerate labor cost burdens and business closures for small self-employed operators, while labor argues that a meaningful increase is unavoidable to protect the real wages of low-income workers amid high inflation.

Once the commission adopts a figure Tuesday, it will be submitted to the minister of employment and labor. The Ministry of Employment and Labor will then announce the decision and open a 10-day objection period. If objections are filed, the commission may conduct a re-deliberation, though such cases are rare in practice. The minister must officially announce next year's minimum wage by Aug. 5, with the confirmed rate taking effect Jan. 1 next year.

Minimum wage increases over the past five years were 5.05 percent in 2022, 5.0 percent in 2023, 2.5 percent in 2024, 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026. The current 2.9 percent rate — decided last year — is the lowest increase in the first year of any administration since 1998, when the rate was 2.7 percent in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. The share of workers affected by this year's minimum wage also hit a 10-year low of 13.1 percent, based on the supplementary survey of the economically active population.


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