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US President Donald Trump [AP]
US President Donald Trump [AP]

The United States and Iran are sliding back into a hard-line standoff after President Donald Trump formally declared the truce with Tehran over and Iran fired back, vowing it would never surrender.

Both sides say they remain open to dialogue, but analysts say the MOU framework — under which the two countries had agreed to pursue end-of-war negotiations on the basis of a ceasefire — has in effect been rendered void.

Trump announced Friday on his Truth Social platform that "the Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue talking," adding that while Washington agreed, "the United States made it clear to Iran that the truce is over."

Trump had already signaled as much on Wednesday, telling NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that the end-of-war MOU with Iran appeared to be "finished." Friday's statement formalized that position.

By declaring the truce over while leaving the door open to talks, Trump signaled a shift from negotiations premised on a ceasefire to a framework in which armed conflict could resume at any time.

The move appears to reflect Washington's determination to maintain military pressure over Iranian actions it considers MOU violations, including attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran responded in kind.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament and a leading figure in the end-of-war negotiations, said that while ending the war remained the top priority, "this conflict will never end with Iran's surrender."

He warned that Iran had "never stood down its defensive posture against the possibility of the US breaking the agreement," and that if Washington provoked again, Iran would "reclaim its legitimate rights through an all-out defensive war."

Iran also pushed back on Trump's claim that Tehran had requested continued talks. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denied that Iran had sought negotiations with the United States.

Baghaei added, however, that Iran had agreed to receive a Qatari mediation delegation.

Qatar is credited with playing a decisive role in narrowing key sticking points during last month's MOU negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Both sides have signaled a willingness to use force if necessary while stopping short of closing the door on diplomacy entirely.

With tensions already running high following Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent US retaliatory airstrikes, observers say a prolonged hard-line standoff has become increasingly likely.

Even if talks resume, the conditions for reaching a deal are far worse than they were under the MOU framework that both sides had recognized, and any agreement is expected to come only after considerable difficulty.

The Strait of Hormuz dispute — the immediate trigger for the latest armed conflict — is rooted in a fundamental disagreement over how to interpret the MOU, analysts say.

Article 5 of the MOU states that Iran will take necessary steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had been blockaded during the war, guarantee safe navigation, and work to remove military obstacles such as mines.

It also stipulates that Iran will consult with Oman and neighboring countries on future management of the strait.

Washington reads Article 5 as a guarantee of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran views it as a clause recognizing Iran's exclusive control over the waterway.

In practice, Iran has been requiring commercial vessels to use only designated routes along its coastline and attacking ships that take other paths.

The US has responded forcefully, combining retaliatory airstrikes with additional sanctions. Washington reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil on Tuesday and announced further sanctions Friday targeting financiers of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Both sides are nonetheless said to retain an underlying desire to restore the original end-of-war framework, and back-channel discussions through mediators appear to be continuing.

Axios, citing sources, reported that additional US-Iran negotiations are scheduled to take place in Switzerland next week.

A diplomat familiar with the back-channel discussions told Axios that Qatari mediators planned to visit Iran on Saturday after coordinating with the United States, and would meet with Iranian officials.

"It is clear that both sides want to return to the MOU," the diplomat said.

However, with mutual distrust deepening after the recent armed conflict, additional confidence-building measures are expected to be needed before the MOU framework can resume normal operation.

The US is expected to demand guarantees of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and a resumption of nuclear negotiations, while Iran is likely to insist on a halt to further airstrikes and an easing of sanctions.

Ultimately, whether the two sides can return to a ceasefire through dialogue and stabilize a negotiating framework will be the defining factor shaping the future of the Middle East.


mokiya@heraldcorp.com