Escalation or retreat: Trump trapped in Iran dilemma

US President Donald Trump speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday. [AP]

As the truce between the United States and Iran shows signs of unraveling, Donald Trump's plan to extricate himself from the Iran war has hit a wall. He cannot afford to let the conflict escalate — but he also cannot be seen backing down in the face of Iranian provocation.

At the heart of the recent clashes is a fundamental disagreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has demonstrated that it can effectively control the waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil passes, and has signaled it expects to play an ongoing role in managing the strait — or even collect transit fees.

Washington has pushed back, insisting on free and safe navigation through the strait. Allowing Iran to use the waterway as leverage would amount to tacitly recognizing Tehran's influence over the world's most critical oil shipping lane.

CNN on Thursday compared Trump's predicament to a Penrose staircase — an endless loop where no matter how far you climb, you end up back where you started. The analogy captures a cycle of tough talk followed by de-escalation, military pressure followed by renewed diplomacy, with no real exit in sight.

The latest exchange of fire, which began Tuesday, was triggered when Iran attacked merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the US objected. Trump subsequently declared the memorandum of understanding on ending the war "finished," only to walk back the remarks and insist he was not resuming hostilities — while warning Iran it would face even graver consequences.

According to Reuters, analysts say Trump has few options left. Large-scale military action beyond tit-for-tat retaliation risks reigniting full-scale war, while a muted response to Iranian provocations would signal that Tehran can continue using the strait as a bargaining chip.

Trump is likely to use military pressure to drag Iran back to the negotiating table and resolve the nuclear program issue. But analysts say Iran is unlikely to offer the level of concessions Washington is seeking.

Aaron David Miller, who handled Middle East negotiations under both Democratic and Republican administrations, said Trump "has cornered himself" and that "it's hard to see him getting a big win out of Iran — militarily or diplomatically."

Skepticism is widespread that the two sides can reach a comprehensive agreement within the 60-day negotiating window set out in the memorandum of understanding. All the core issues were deferred to follow-on talks, but those negotiations have made little progress and the schedule for the next round remains unclear.

Iranians hold banners symbolizing revenge against US President Donald Trump as they mourn Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed, at a funeral held at the Grand Mosalla in Tehran on Sunday. [AFP]

Iran, already badly battered economically and militarily, now faces fresh pressure after the US revoked sanctions waivers that had allowed it to sell oil on international markets. Even so, Iran's hardline leadership appears prepared to absorb additional sanctions and military pressure.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East at the National Intelligence Council, said the current pattern is likely to persist. "We're not going back to full-scale war, but repeated clashes — a kind of 'managed instability' — could well become the new normal," he said.

Domestic politics add another layer of pressure on Trump. With midterm elections approaching in November, calls to end a war that has also hurt the US economy are growing louder. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last month put Trump's approval rating at 34 percent, the lowest of his second term, and the Republican Party's prospects of holding its congressional majority are dimming. The November midterms loom large for Trump: a prolonged war that drives up gasoline prices could sour voters and hurt Republicans at the ballot box.

Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University, said Trump "knows the economy has to be his top priority" and is aware that dragging out the war could cast him as a Herbert Hoover figure — a president defined by economic failure at the onset of the Great Depression.

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Iran believes the US does not want a prolonged war and that Gulf states are desperate for a return to normalcy. "Iran is betting that Trump will conduct a few days of military action and that Gulf states will ultimately step in to mediate," he said.

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mokiya@heraldcorp.com